Hi Tom.
Ah! Ye-old Lotus-123 charts in that link bring back memories :)
In another post https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=155969449 I indicated how since 2000 has been somewhat similar to the 1970's, the era that drove Lichello to devise the original classic 50/50 AIM.
Looking at how a all stock investor who started in 2000, applying a 4% SWR out of total returns ... and in inflation adjusted terms had they persisted with that to present/recent then ...
they'd be sitting on inflation adjusted portfolio value of around 25% of the Jan 2000 start date $100,000 amount. Ouch!
Standard AIM, 50% initial cash, 10% SAFE and Min Trade Size would have seen % cash dip near to perfect timing of the 2009 declines, and have subsequently rebounded back up to 50% % cash levels, averaging 33% cash overall since 2000.
AIM of just stock price (S&P500), no dividends nor cash interest included, would be up in inflation adjusted terms by 35%, but did see dips down to be lagging inflation at times.
Depending on where/how you had cash invested then along with dividends the combined dividends + cash interest from stock + cash holdings might have paid out a average 3.7%/year 'salary' (income) according to my approximation/cash for preferred choice of 'cash' holdings over that period. So pretty much broadly offset inflation + providing a 4% inflation adjusted income type outcome from standard AIM since 2000.
Pretty much adds further to that post suggesting since 2000 being like the 1970's over again observation.
Unlike the 1970's where events/circumstances had high interest rates (low prices) after investors took large hits, we are seeing the complete opposite of very low interest rates/high prices. So whilst investors whose portfolios did get through the 1970's bad times were relatively quickly compensated subsequently (the great 1980's/90's Bull run), we're perhaps unlikely to see such compensation any time soon.
Regards. Clive.
Ah! Ye-old Lotus-123 charts in that link bring back memories :)
In another post https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=155969449 I indicated how since 2000 has been somewhat similar to the 1970's, the era that drove Lichello to devise the original classic 50/50 AIM.
Looking at how a all stock investor who started in 2000, applying a 4% SWR out of total returns ... and in inflation adjusted terms had they persisted with that to present/recent then ...
they'd be sitting on inflation adjusted portfolio value of around 25% of the Jan 2000 start date $100,000 amount. Ouch!
Standard AIM, 50% initial cash, 10% SAFE and Min Trade Size would have seen % cash dip near to perfect timing of the 2009 declines, and have subsequently rebounded back up to 50% % cash levels, averaging 33% cash overall since 2000.
AIM of just stock price (S&P500), no dividends nor cash interest included, would be up in inflation adjusted terms by 35%, but did see dips down to be lagging inflation at times.
Depending on where/how you had cash invested then along with dividends the combined dividends + cash interest from stock + cash holdings might have paid out a average 3.7%/year 'salary' (income) according to my approximation/cash for preferred choice of 'cash' holdings over that period. So pretty much broadly offset inflation + providing a 4% inflation adjusted income type outcome from standard AIM since 2000.
Pretty much adds further to that post suggesting since 2000 being like the 1970's over again observation.
Unlike the 1970's where events/circumstances had high interest rates (low prices) after investors took large hits, we are seeing the complete opposite of very low interest rates/high prices. So whilst investors whose portfolios did get through the 1970's bad times were relatively quickly compensated subsequently (the great 1980's/90's Bull run), we're perhaps unlikely to see such compensation any time soon.
Regards. Clive.
Join the InvestorsHub Community
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
