Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[sgolds]

yourbankruptcy, let's look at your assumption -

I think in 6 months AMD will have 1 or 2 million A64 per quarter.

For reference, I'll reference this (admittingly optimistic) report from theInquirer:

http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=11862

They claim that your 1-2M number will be reached in Q1, with over 5M in Q2. The Q1 numbers may be coming from 130nm production, the Q2 numbers have to include substantial 90nm product (IMO).

If these numbers are off by a full quarter then your statement is correct. Now, note that the total number of processors per quarter are in the 7.5-8M range, varying seasonally. So 1.5M A64s in Q2 would be almost 20% of AMD's projected capacity; if the chart is correct, they will have 68% of production on A64s, finished ready to deliver to the market.

Let's add a note about AMD's rate of conversion to a new process. This chart is a little dated now, but it is illustrative of AMD's traditional conversion rate:

http://www.amd.com/us-en/assets/content_type/DownloadableAssets/Bill_Siegle_2002_AMD_Analyst_Mtg.pdf

Take a look at Foil 12. It shows that factory conversion from 130nm to 90nm is expected to take 2 quarters from start to finish. I don't think that AMD has any plans to produce existing XPs on 90nm; in fact, evidence is that they will produce 32-bit processors as degraded socket 755 A64s.

All told, I think your conclusion is overly pessimistic. If AMD only has 1 to 2M A64s in Q2 then it means that 90nm screwed up and AMD is in a lot of trouble.

Let's hope you are wrong!

(Look for comments on the 90nm conversion to be perhaps the most important piece of information from the CC next week.)