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Tuesday, June 02, 2020 10:21:25 AM
The OTC almost always prices in a disproportionately big "risk discount," because, well, it's the OTC. But as we can see, that's starting to change here. What a lot of folks seem to be missing is the upside regardless of what auditor comments show.
For example, lets say the global economic environment gets worse and worse, and so bad in fact that auditors suggest 50% write downs on every single asset on the books because fair value is so far below carrying value. The company is so diversified that this has essentially no chance of happening. And even if it did, everyone else would be so screwed because the world was ending that it wouldn't matter anyway!
My point: even in a total global doomsday scenario with 50% haircut in value, book value would still imply .05 pps (90m - 69m) / 419m OS.
So guess what? There's incredible upside here in my opnion no matter what audited fins show, because the risk discount can't stay as big as its been when there's certainty - especially when it shows $180 m+ in assets.
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