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Re: fearfrost post# 2636

Friday, 12/15/2006 6:07:22 PM

Friday, December 15, 2006 6:07:22 PM

Post# of 49891
Fearfrost, I would say don't do it, unless you have so much money that you won't miss it when it's gone. The risk level with that stock is off the charts, and binary events are risky enough without jumping into a stock you don't know well. If you manage to win this time, you'll just do it again on a larger scale and lose. That's the nature of a 50/50 bet, and the seductive allure of biotech. Save yourself a lot of grief and stick to a diversified portfolio of good bio stocks that you know.

However, if you've decided to roll the dice anyway, you should at least go over to Dew's I-Hub Biotech Values thread and ask them about the stock. They've apparently had some previous discussions on it, and can direct you to those posts. If Dew is familiar with Northview, his analysis would be very helpful. Also, try to get hold of several Wall Street analyst's reports, especially if you can find one that is bearish. You might also want to get a few opinions over on the Silicon Investor Bio Valuation thread, where many bright bio guys hang out.

I just stumbled onto that stock since they had a presentation at the recent Montreal Conference. It sounded like a cool idea, but I have no idea of its chances. The general impression I get is that so far the blood substitute area has been a bio graveyard. Be extremely careful. If you're smart, you'll just skip the whole "bet the farm" stage that most bio investors unfortunately go through.











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