SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[Nebuchadnezzar]

A friend is linked with a appliance selling company in California. April was their best month ever. As in EVER!! Virus or not. Very happy for them. This was their best month ever since they opened decades ago. If people are looking to buy a new appliances, they’ll probably get tablets and iPhones and order more from amazon. Until cash runs out. Savings income are at about 33% the way I’m hearing it.

I get it, im 35 years old, I been around long enough to see a few things.
I understand a few things. I personally know how hard it can be to SAVE MONEY, especially a CASH PILE. I waited until I was 34 to get a credit card just to see what it was like. $1000 BALANCE, I used $600 of it to repair my truck, that's it. I am a CASH IS KING person. if you have $100, you cant buy $100.01

anyways, spending $1200 in "free" govt money misleads millions of people. the unemployment money is still backlogged in a big way. Millions are using that $1200 to pay rent or bills and food. Many americans swiped $100's of bucks at the grocery store in March, that has to get repaid.

Amazon, Walmart, target, Kroger, dollar general, family dollar, anything food related is where 80% of expenses have gone for millions of americans, I know 90% of my spending has gone to take out and bills. its not like I could go anywhere else to spend that money, and I am not a big fan of online shopping so I bought AMZN stock, but have NEVER bought anything off Amazon. I live a pretty simple life.

Now as for going forward. The market prices in things for 6 to 12 months out right? well then its priced in way way more than you think at even 2900, we are at 3050. The part that maybe you see or do see, is that the biggest issue going forward for the holidays and 2021+ is the JOBS

JOBS WILL BE LOST PERMANENTLY. it will take time to create NEW JOBS.
if say 45 million are truly unemployed, what happens to SPENDING, when say 5-10 million of those jobs are displaced for 6 to 12 months or even destroyed?

look at the store closures!!! those are JOBS that are GONE!!!we are still in the early innings of the effects of the shutdown, the virus isn't slowing down, look at Russia and Brazil.

BRAZIL should be the TEMPLATE of what not to do or what can happen if we reopen and become complacent. Brazil is now at half a million cases in about a month and its growing every day, bigger numbers than anything new York or rest of the US saw.

all I am saying is, buying up here bc of the FED can be a fools errand.

#1.Unemployment money is TAXED
#2. the over payments are going to end in July
#3. not everyone has received their unemployment or stimulus yet
#4. a second round of stimulus is almost a pipe dream at this point
#5. The FED cant create jobs
#6. the Fed cant make anyone spend money, especially money they don't have
#7. The Fed will eventually be forced to tighten before they want to
#8. Other countries are buying up our bonds and stocks bc we are best house on the block pushing up assets prices and lowering yields.
#9. Europe will be in a recession for years
#10. China vs US is heating up and im with Trump, China needs to be point in time out
#11. South Korea still has new cases (supply chain issue)
#12. HONG KONG is a big issue
#13. Civil unrest in the US
#14. NO SPORTS (huge job losses and revenue misses)
#15. ELECTION 2020!!!
#16. Commerical real estate destruction
#17. real estate in general could be an issue
#18. The rally mostly went up on lower than average volume due to high concentration in 6 names
#19. California and New York account for $5.5 trillion of US economy
#20. Tourism in 2019 was near $9.6 TRILLION dollars, nearly 10% of GLOBAL GDP
and many more things I forgot, and yet the market thinks its cool to be near record highs, with PE of 18-22 for 2021??

ok. I will not go down without a fight. I will fight the tape and the Fed and I will take the short pops of profit. The FED cant save us forever