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Thursday, May 28, 2020 5:29:56 PM
Q1 should be a much cleaner report showing the basic costs to run the company on a quarterly basis. This should give us a good idea of what size revenues NGW needs to break even in a normal quarter.
NGW has already reported partial sales in Q1 of $650K in their March update. My conservative guesstimate for the full quarter is somewhere between $700K and $800K. To me anything over would be a welcome surprise.
I'll be focused more in Q1 on the bottom line to see what more is needed to to reach profitability with normal quarterly expenses. If they need $5M per quarter, that's a big nut to crack. If they can get costs down to $1M to $2M that would be more in line with costs related to a 35,000 sq ft facility.
My guesstimate is NGW will come up around $2M to $3M short of break even in Q1, barring any further write downs etc, which would be a remarkable improvement over Q4. If costs are much higher I'll be scouring the report for the reason why. Trust but verify is my motto :)
NGW is firing on all cylinders now, with new products arriving almost weekly at the dispensaries. The product is high quality with THC levels off the charts in some cases. If they continue to execute at this level and get costs right sized to the facility, then the sky's the limit to what they can achieve. imho glta
PS- Don't be surprised if they take the 45 day Covid 19 extension for filing the report. That seems to be what most of my stocks are doing. Have to give NGW credit for filing Q1 on time. Also isn't about time The Board made Mike Jennings permanent CEO. I think so.
Posts are my opinion only, and not advice of any kind. glta
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