Z: I don't want to be a distraction to the daytrading focus here. But, fwiw:
Here is what I said: "If you still hold your three servings of QID (last serving in October, I think), then I would view you as more bearish than bullish on the market during this timeframe(Naz)."
First, if QID is a 6% position it is really a 12% position because QID is inverse 2x.
Secondly, I believe it is your only market position. Note I said I thought you were more bearish on the "market" and not some individual stocks. In talking about individual stocks, I am talking about your "core" positions. When one is bearish on the market but long stocks that is a positon that while you think the market is in trouble, your stocks are going to outperform or go up or it is a hedge in case you are wrong about your stocks or you have tax considerations. Daytrading positions or overnight stuff does not count in my book. Those change on a whim.
Third, a hedge is a bearish position on the market insofar as it uses up capital to protect yourself from a market fall. It is not a bullish position. A bullish position would be having no QID at all and to be long the "market" with that additional capital set aside for the QID. Buying QLD would be a very bullish position on the market.
You have had multiple occasions to sell your QID and take a loss when the market got oversold. You take losses frequently on your stock positions when you think they are going against you. But you have not removed your hedge. So, based upon your actions, you have been more bearish than bullish on the market in my view at several juntures. If you thought the market was going up higher, you would have sold the QID at these junctures and repositioned the hedge a better price. Instead you either added to the position (up until October) and chose not to sell and reposition. But my view is premised on the notion of rational behavior.
I am not saying you are irrational. Sometimes we just neglect stuff without giving it much thought. I have done that before. Maybe this is the case for your QID. Maybe you were just passive on this position. Maybe this was a directional bet for you at the beginning that turned into a hedge.
Again, I am not talking about your individual stock positions ... daytrading or core. My thinking is to make a distinction about what one thinks about the market will do and what one thinks their individual stocks will do. A QID bet or a hedge standing alone is a bet on what the market will do and one's thinking about the market. One's individual stocks (core) may or may not correlate with market performance and cannot be viewed as a market bet neccesarily.
