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Re: Gotmilk97 post# 15490

Thursday, 05/21/2020 1:10:48 AM

Thursday, May 21, 2020 1:10:48 AM

Post# of 50005
.97 cents -A common valuation structure is multiplying the earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization by 4.5X. Trucking companies will often trade at higher multiples of their EBITDA, but the actual sale of the business will be based on a lower EBITDA multiple. For example, TransForce was able to acquire XPO logistics at a 4.9X EBITDA multiple. Therefore, to understand what multiples do trucking companies sell for, one must first calculate the EBITDA then multiply it by 4-5X to get the valuation price.

If a firm has an operating income (100 million, this is TLSS)(revenue-expenses) (safe assumption is 1/3 of company is spending on cost) Subtracting the costs of X trailer units, X number of employees, office space rental, and other expenses not directly related to the profitability of a truck, the total estimated EBITDA equals roughly 2/3. As a result, the current valuation based on a multiple of 4.5X is 100* 2/3= 66 million, or $297,000,000. ( this is assuming 2020 revs not including the acquisitions)
297,000,000/306,000,000
.97 cents per share



..so....19 times 4 to 8 is $0.76 to $1.52 (not including market conditions over valuation, under, more contracts, expansion, shorts etc). HOWEVER, this is going to be a 100 million++ company and the first Q comes out soon after the 10k.

If you take a 100 million dollar co assuming 30% in net after its all said and done, it equals an eps of .098 cents... times the PE Ratio (industry avg) which is 18.8.

=1.84 cents per share.


Take thee ol' SHM* example. Way bigger SS and they had...yup you guessed it...ZERO REVENUES and it hit .95
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