I remain very bullish on PLX. The apparent superior treatment for Fabry patients from PRX-102 is a wonderful achievement. The actual filing of the BLA, hopefully this month, I believe will help to lift the current 100 million market valuation somewhat more in June. Because 102 is a much better treatment I expect the FDA to approve it in four months; therefore in September. That should set the discounting process in place for much higher values as we approach the roll out of treatment.
In the meantime the muted response to the current good news is: market conditions; covid 19 delays, and PRX's capital structure. By this I mean: there are now 32 million shares outstanding with another potential 32 million to come on the market in the coming year or so. (17 million from warrant conversion, which will add $41 million to the balance sheet, and 9 million from convertible note conversion and approximately 5 million from stock option conversions to outstanding shares). This means the real outstanding shares will be around 64 million shares.
It will take visibility that 102 is quickly replacing the present two treatments in the fourth quarter and early next year for the market to absorb these additional shares. I believe this can happen. Pricing and the royalty stream will come into focus by the first quarter 2021 which will help. Analysts should be able to develop EPS models by year end. It will also be helpful if management gets moving on PRX-106.
I believe this sets the stage for a minimum $1 billion market value in a year from now.
