Following the latest results, Moderna's eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$88.3m in 2020. This would be a substantial 68% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to narrow 2.9% to US$1.46 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$85.8m and losses of US$1.51 per share in 2020. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrades to both revenue and loss per share forecasts for this year.
It will come as no surprise to learn thatthe analysts have increased their price target for Moderna 29% to US$59.83 on the back of these upgrades. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Moderna at US$83.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$37.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Moderna is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to grow 68%. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 57% annual decline over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 22% per year. Not only are Moderna's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Moderna. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Moderna going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
