Saturday, May 09, 2020 12:50:42 AM
Homeland Security
"1957 Asian Flu Pandemic
I. The 1957 pandemic is instructive in that the first US cases occurred in June but no community outbreaks occurred until August and the first wave of illness peaked in October...
Vaccine was available in limited supply by August 1957. The virus came to the US quietly, with a series of small outbreaks over the summer of 1957. When US children went back to school in the fall, they spread the disease in classrooms and brought it home to their families.
During the 1957-1958 pandemic, a WHO expert panel found that spread within some countries followed public gatherings, such as conferences and festivals.16 This panel also observed that in many countries the pandemic broke out first in camps, army units and schools; suggesting that the avoidance of crowding may be important in reducing the peak incidence of an epidemic...
Vaccine production for the Asian flu began about 3 months after the first outbreaks occurred in China. The first cases in the US occurred in the summer, with a peak in October following school openings. The first doses of vaccine became available in September and by mid-October at the peak of the US pandemic fewer than half of the approximately 60 million doses produced had been delivered.
By December 1957, the worst seemed to be over. However, during January and February 1958, there was another wave of illness among the elderly. This is an example of the potential "second wave" of infections that can develop during a pandemic. The disease infects one group of people first, infections appear to decrease and then infections increase in a different part of the population.
https://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/hsc-scen-3_pandemic-1957.htm
"Infections at schools
Fall arrived, and the virus swept through U.S. schools.
In a brief calm before that storm, many communities wondered whether they might escape the virus or if public-health officials were crying wolf.
The answer was no.
School superintendents in 36 cities reported absentee rates each week to the CDC. A report published in 1959 estimated that “over 60 percent of students had clinical illnesses during the fall.” District of Columbia school absenteeism peaked at 23 percent the week ending Oct. 12. In Baltimore, it was the next week; in Boston, two weeks later... (60% of elementary school kids ill and sharing with their families in 36 cities. Who here is ready to risk their kids/grandkids with those odds?)
By Thanksgiving, life was nearly back to normal, and health officials were trying to convince the public that flu shots were still worth taking. Their advice was good. Asian flu came back for a third time, in late February, causing another spike in mortality, this time mostly in the elderly.
In all, the 1957-58 pandemic was responsible for about 60,000 “excess deaths” in the United States — deaths exceeding what normally would be expected. About 40,000 occurred in the summer and fall of 1957, 20,000 in the winter of 1958. That’s the equivalent of 107,000 people in the U.S. population today."
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/lessons-to-be-learned-from-1957-pandemic/
70K (according to public health) to 116K (according to The Atlantic) in three waves from summer 1957 to mid-spring 1958.
Not 2020's 80K in 3 months 9 days heading for 125K+ by May's end and 200K before July. 300K by August, 500K before the next Flu season starts. Without continued intervention we'll have broken the 1918-1919 American flu death record before the second wave arrives.
Yay.
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