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I was quite stunned when I did it.

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wadirum1 Member Level  Monday, 04/06/20 11:47:16 AM
Re: wadirum1 post# 140
Post # of 242 
I was quite stunned when I did it. Basically, interest rates are so low that we don't care that much about what happens this year. It is year 17, year 24, year 30 or even year 50 that really matter.

This is, in essence, what Buffett is talking about.

However, the simple model does NOT factor in the really bad scenario in which we end up with stagflation, causing interest rates to rise (and then rise higher as we try to get rid of the inflation). If we repeat the oil embargo and the Paul Volcker battle against inflation, then stocks are going to tank shockingly. Same if the whole system melts down.

For now, however, I think the virus counts are going to look good and the market is going to want to go much higher (even as I wonder about whether that is smart).

I am obviously NOT an investment advisor.
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