Thursday, April 02, 2020 10:08:51 AM
Kyle Bass:Think it’s bad now? Wait a month
Think it’s bad now? Wait a month, says hedge-fund manager Kyle Bass
By Shawn Langlois
Kyle Bass, chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management, believes “this too shall pass,” when it comes to Monday’s deep selloff — the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, 0.615% was down more than 2,100 points — but he’s in no hurry to buy up stocks at bargain prices.
That’s Bass talking on CNBC early Monday about how long this weakness will last. He said that until the results from the first round of widespread testing for the coronavirus infection are tallied in the U.S., he’ll remain in holding pattern.
According to the latest numbers, there are now 111,284 cases of COVID-19 and 3,892 deaths. In the U.S., 22 people have died, with 564 confirmed cases as of Monday morning.
At this point, Bass says he’s not buying or selling, instead he’ll just be watching “one of the most interesting financial collapses that we’ve seen in the past 15 to 20 years.”
However, he’ll be ready to pounce when the timing’s right.
“There will be some amazing things to purchase on the back end of this,” Bass said, singling out theme-park operator Six Flags SIX, -0.330% and the airline sector as the kind of investments that will get hit the hardest but also rebound the quickest.
You Not ONLY has the Supply Chain Collapse along with Global Exports.......At best they're still going Nowhere fast for the NEXT 2 Months.
At 104 the FX Crisis WILL BE making BIG TIME Headlines............Global Credit Markets are sooooooooooooo Totally SCREWED !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
DXY US Dollar Currency Index
DXY US Dollar Currency Index (.DXY:Exchange)
100.03 +0.35 (+0.35%)
You now have an Asain Unemployment Crisis building.............That Will LEAD to a Credit Crisis by BOTH the Consumer as well as Business............That will lead to a Devaluing of Sovereign Currencies in the Region that will LEAD to the MOTHER of ALL Banking Failures especially in China!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3078155/investors-punish-hsbc-standard-chartered-scrapping-dividends
Investors punish HSBC, Standard Chartered for scrapping dividends, wiping billions off shares and calling for headquarters to move to Hong Kong
HSBC, Standard Chartered axed dividends, suspended buy-backs after request from UK regulator on Wednesday
Investors call on banks to move HQ to HK. HSBC says will not revisit issue
By Chad Bray and Enoch Yiu
From retirees to global insurers and investment managers, outraged shareholders in Hong Kong have wiped billions of dollars in value off HSBC’s and Standard Chartered’s shares after the banks axed dividends and suspended share buy-backs on Wednesday.
Over the course of two days, HSBC’s shares in Hong Kong have lost 12 per cent of their value, plumbing their lowest level since the depths of the global financial crisis in March 2009. Standard Chartered’s stock did not fare much better, dropping 8 per cent since Tuesday’s close.
The sharp pullback came after shareholders in Hong Kong woke up Wednesday morning to headlines that the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) – a regulator nearly 6,000 miles away from the banks’ biggest market – called on United Kingdom-based banks to suspend investor payouts until at least the fourth quarter
in light of the novel coronavirus pandemic that is roiling economies worldwide.
The move was bitter reminder to Hongkongers that they have little say in matters relating to their city's defence, diplomacy and now, even the dividends paid by some of the world's largest banks. The stocks touch the lives of many Hongkongers who often give HSBC’s shares as graduation or wedding gifts. About a third of HSBC’s shares are held by retail investors.
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Announcement: Moody's changes outlook on 12 APAC banking systems to negative
Singapore, April 02, 2020 --
• Coronavirus-related disruptions will weaken operating environment and weigh on asset quality
• Policy measures help mitigate the effects on banks, but further downside risk remains
Moody's Investors Service has changed its outlook on 12 Asia Pacific banking systems to negative in light of the coronavirus outbreak and broad economic deterioration. At the same time, it has maintained its negative outlook on two banking systems -- Hong Kong and Japan -- meaning its outlook on 14 systems is now negative.
The negative outlook reflects Moody's expectation that the broad and growing scope of economic and market disruption from the coronavirus outbreak will increasingly strain banks' operating environment and loan performance. Widespread business defaults and restrictions on social interactions will hit economic activity this year, and Moody's projects a contraction in global economic growth in 2020.
Although governments have put in place far-reaching support measures designed to shore up the financial position of businesses and soften the negative impact on employment and households, Moody's does not expect these will be sufficient to fully offset the adverse impact of the coronavirus-induced downturn on banks. Moody's expects the hotel and restaurant, airline, automotive, and retail sectors to be the most severely hit, and that small and mid-sized enterprises (SMEs) will be particularly vulnerable.
Moreover, if disruptions from the coronavirus outbreak extend beyond the first half of the year, the credit impact on banks could be significant.
In most banking systems, government support maintains strong and forthcoming.
Outlooks for the Australian, Chinese, Indian, Indonesian, Korean, Malaysian, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam banking systems are changed to negative. Moody's expects that the operating environment for these banking systems will deteriorate significantly as a result of coronavirus-related disruption. The economic and market upheaval caused by the outbreak will depress business activity and increase banks' asset risk, while credit costs will rise. As a result, bank profitability will decline, also depressed by lower policy rates. Government support will remain forthcoming for systemically-important banks in most systems, but will be less certain for the smaller banks.
The outlook on the Thailand banking system is changed to negative from positive. The operating environment for the country's banks will deteriorate over the next 12-18 months, with contracting exports and weakening private consumption. Asset quality will deteriorate as borrowers' debt-servicing capacity weakens, while slowing loan demand and rising credit costs will weigh on profitability.
The outlook on the Hong Kong and Japan banking systems remains negative. For both systems the coronavirus outbreak is adding to existing pressures -- in Hong Kong those stemming from trade tensions and recurring public protests, and in Japan from an ageing and shrinking population and ultralow interest rates. Broad economic weakness will hit asset quality and profitability in both systems, while in Japan capital will also deteriorate.
To see the complete banking sector outlook reports, click the weblink for each country:
Australia http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1221660
China http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1221746
Hong Kong http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1221842
India http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1221669
Indonesia http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1221671
Japan http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1221665
Korea http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1221678
Malaysia http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1221670
New Zealand http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1221661
Philippines http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1221675
Singapore http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1221672
Taiwan http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1221507
Thailand http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1221548
Vietnam http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1221673
Moody's downgrades outlook for Singapore banks to 'negative' as Covid-19 pandemic escalates
Moody's downgrades outlook for Indian banks due to coronavirus
Moody's downgrades outlook for Australian banks due to coronavirus
Echoes of Asia Financial Crisis Haunt Region’s Debt Market
Echoes of Asia Financial Crisis Haunt Region’s Debt Market
By Denise Wee
(Bloomberg) -- As the coronavirus outbreak roils credit markets around the world, Asia is under particular threat.
The region has led the world in economic growth for years as debt helped fuel frenetic construction of airports, bridges and apartment towers for millions of people moving into cities. That model is now running up against an unprecedented spike in borrowing costs, as investors who piled into the region’s riskiest debt at a record pace grow anxious.
“It’s all coming home to roost,” said Charles Macgregor, head of Asia at Lucror Analytics, an independent research firm based in Singapore that focuses on high-yield credit. “Some companies will take advantage of the crisis to restructure their debt.”
Bondholders are now racing to dump their positions after snapping up a world-beating 140% jump in junk-rated Asian dollar issues in 2019. Spreads on junk bonds have soared to around the highest on record, according to data going back to 2010, new issuance has slowed to a trickle and analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are predicting defaults will rise.
The swing from boom to bust has been swift even by the standards of today’s manic global markets. Weakening Asian currencies put additional strain on companies that borrowed in dollars. The depth and breadth of the pain will depend on the path of the outbreak and government efforts to prevent economic depression, but some businesses are running out of time. About 40% of the $11.4 trillion in bonds issued by Asian companies will mature before the end of 2021, including about $23 billion of stressed dollar notes coming due this year.
Money managers once seduced by high yields have lost their appetite for risk. Since February 20, investors have withdrawn over $34 billion from corporate bond funds, according to the Institute of International Finance.
The current situation echoes the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, when companies took on unprecedented levels of dollar-denominated debt, says Xavier Jean, senior director for corporate ratings at S&P Global Ratings.
The pandemic is forcing companies to draw down credit lines and even brings fears of a protracted malaise that has some flavor of a depression. In an early warning sign of pain in Asia, Singapore’s economy contracted the most in a decade in the first quarter. The credit market turmoil adds to risks for a region that again surpassed other areas with a 5.3% economic growth rate last year, but is now particularly vulnerable as travel bans and lockdowns crimp exports.
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BUY GOLD...........ALL You CAN..............When EVER YOU CAN!!!!!!!!!!!!
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