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Re: None

Tuesday, 10/07/2003 7:43:37 PM

Tuesday, October 07, 2003 7:43:37 PM

Post# of 19037
continuing to lay low and in cash...

Still 55% of portfolio in gold stocks, 10% in natgas stocks, and 35% in cash/Pimco Commodity fund PCRDX...

We got the US Treasury Auctions coming up this week:
"The government will sell $16 billion in 5-year notes Wednesday and on Thursday will offer $9 billion more of the 10-year inflation-protected notes previously sold in July in addition to its weekly offerings of shorter-term bills."

Suggest you be careful adding gold stocks here, US does not take a liking to POG during these auctions...

As for natgas stocks, well I do believe they are undervalued with many selling for less than 15x earnings and 3.5x cash flow..., certainly a much better value than most S&P and QQQ stocks... Nonetheless, continue to believe Robry is right... We will likely have a 80ish build this week and next week appears to be even higher (not as many cooling deg days). We are looking at natgas storage above 3.1TCF by end of this injection season, IMO... With supply exceeding demand by so much each week, hard to fathom what is driving those natgas future prices, but they are definitely trending up...

So just sitting on cash for now..., since the risk vs. reward for both gold and natgas stocks does not appear opportune...

My current thinking and research is now on SA Gold stocks. The Rand/US$ exchange rate is making new 3 year highs recently... Watching that weekly chart to time when to buy HMY, GFI, and more GBN...





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