Tuesday, March 31, 2020 11:57:36 PM
The Danger Of Inflation
The Danger Of Inflation
By WWS Swiss Financial Consulting SA
More Debt
Investors should be aware of how much Washington is going to be spending. The US government has passed a $2.2 trillion relief program to compensate for the coronavirus. There is not much discussion about where this money is going to come from. The Treasury already has to deal with a $1 trillion budget deficit for 2020. Obviously, the Fed will come to the rescue and increase its balance by over $3 trillion in 2020. The figure could be even higher depending on how much GDP is affected by the pandemic since many businesses are shut down or not operating at full capacity. Tax revenue will be less for Q1 and Q2 due to the pandemic. Taxpayers will pay for the program.
Lower Rates and More Liquidity
In two separate rate cuts before the March FOMC meeting, the Fed cut the basic Fed interest rate to 0.0% to 0.25%. Short-term Treasury bills now provide no yield at all and even edge over into negative territory, and the yield curve has inverted again. The Treasury bond market has been extremely volatile as investors crowded into fixed income in order to avoid a further downturn in the stock markets. The yields for 10s and 30s reached record lows and have recovered only slightly.
See the charts below.
LOTS of Charts..........
A Tsunami of Liquidity
It would require a separate article to examine all the ways the Fed is throwing liquidity at the markets. QE5 and huge repo sums, PDCF and commercial paper facilities plus Forex swaps and other expertly excogitated ways of injecting money into the system are all being activated to prevent a credit crunch. It may be expected that a corporate bond-buying window under CARES legislation will be put into effect to save the zombie companies teetering on bankruptcy. Then there will be bailouts for the airline industry, the shale oil industry and many others. Now the Fed can even buy stocks and securities. The amount of money put to work to stave off a crisis will be enormous. Reckon that for the ancient Greeks ten thousand, a myriad, was the biggest number that they could imagine. Nowadays trillions are part of normal parlance. Quadrillion may soon become current in financial scribblings and be followed by quintillion. """Lance Roberts""" has suggested that the Fed is preparing a fourth bubble to solve the problematic situation brought about by the third bubble.
Inflation
The Fed has had difficulty in reaching its inflation target of 2%.
another Charts
The Bottom Line
Investors have already flocked to government paper with the result that yields have gone down to record low levels. The Treasury market was even stalled at a certain point. In any case, there are now several stocks that seem to be not only moderately priced but real bargains. The problem for investors is to see when the markets bottom out. The incipient bear market may see a rally only to persist in a downward trend, thereby trapping the intrepid and rash investors who thought to put their cash into a rising market. When the bottom is reached, it is reasonable to expect a rapid recovery subsequently as in the case of the GFC. It remains to be seen if the recovery will be V-shaped or a long flat line.
*****Investors facing possible inflation or even hyperinflation can take refuge in Physical Gold if they can find it. Gold Mining Shares are also good. Real estate can offer help when inflation soars. Cryptocurrencies might help as the government cannot inflate them. Selling into bear rallies can help raise cash and a first early bear rally is already in the books. There will probably be a second one before the long drawn-out bear market really sets in.
Fed Trying To Inflate A 4th Bubble To Fix The Third
Fed Trying To Inflate A 4th Bubble To Fix The Third
By Lance Roberts
Over the last couple of years, we have often discussed the impact of the Federal Reserve's ongoing liquidity injections, which was causing distortions in financial markets, mal-investment, and the expansion of the "wealth gap."
Our concerns were readily dismissed as bearish as asset prices were rising. The excuse:
"Don't fight the Fed"
However, after years of zero interest rates, never-ending support of accommodative monetary policy, and a lack of regulatory oversight, the consequences of excess have come home to roost.
This is not an "I Told You So," but rather the realization of the inevitable outcome to which investors turned a blind eye in the quest for "easy money" in the stock market.
It's a reminder of the consequences of "greed."
Lots of Charts
cont............
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