Tuesday, March 31, 2020 8:16:17 AM
Should HIT 1 Million by the Weekend!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
1 Million Infected by this Weekend
I will say it AGAIN.............The DOW will TEST 18,000 and FAIL and the S&P will TEST 2,000 and FAIL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Dollar Index heading to NEW Highs breaking through 104!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!EM and China DEBT is Totally SCREWED!!!!!!!!!
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
DXY US Dollar Currency Index
DXY US Dollar Currency Index (.DXY:Exchange)
99.75 +0.57 (+0.58%)
Rally Fizzles, Futures Slide As Dollar Surge Returns
Rally Fizzles, Futures Slide As Dollar Surge Returns
by Tyler Durden ZeroHedge
The torrid quarter-end rally which many attributed to a flood of forced pension fund buying as part of aggressive rebalancing, reversed overnight as US index futures reversed all overnight gains even as European stocks headed for a fifth increase in six sessions amid ongoing debate whether the market meltdown has ended despite the accelerating spread of the coronavirus (spoiler alert: no), while treasury yields dipped below 0.7% while the disconcerting dollar rally is back front and center.
S&P 500 futures rose as high as 2,640 before sliding back under 2,600 as politicians were said to contemplate a fourth round of stimulus, but they struggled to stay in the green as speculation the pension fund bid had faded. Oil producers Exxon Mobil Corp. and Occidental Petroleum Corp. jumped in the premarket thanks to a rebound in oil prices from 18-year lows after the United States and Russia agreed to discuss stabilizing energy markets.
In Europe, energy shares led gains in the Stoxx 600 Index after the World Health Organization said signs emerged of some stabilization in the region’s outbreak. A measure of European corporate-credit stress eased further. Even with today's modest rebound Europe is still set for its worst quarter on record.
cont..............
5 Questions Bulls Need To Answer Now
5 Questions Bulls Need To Answer Now
by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com
In last Tuesday’s Technically Speaking post, I stated:
Chart Updated Through Monday
So, is the bear market over?
Are the bulls now back in charge?
Honestly, no one knows for certain. However, there are 5-questions that “Market Bulls” need to answer if the current rally is to be sustained.
These questions are not entirely technical, but since “technical analysis” is simply the visualization of market psychology, how you answer the questions will ultimately be reflected by the price dynamics of the market.
Let’s get to work.
1. Employment
Employment is the lifeblood of the economy. Individuals cannot consume goods and services if they do not have a job from which they can derive income. From that consumption comes corporate profits and earnings.
Therefore, for individuals to consume at a rate to provide for sustainable, organic (non-Fed supported), economic growth they must work at a level that provides a sustainable living wage above the poverty level. This means full-time employment that provides benefits, and a livable wage. The chart below shows the number of full-time employees relative to the population. I have also overlaid jobless claims (inverted scale), which shows that when claims fall to current levels, it has generally marked the end of the employment cycle and preceded the onset of a recession.
This erosion in jobless claims has only just begun. As jobless claims and continuing claims rise, it will lead to a sharp deceleration in economic confidence. Confidence is the primary factor of consumptive behaviors, which is why the Federal Reserve acted so quickly to inject liquidity into the financial markets. While the Fed’s actions may prop up financial markets in the short-term, it does little to affect the most significant factor weighing on consumers – their job.
Question: Given that employment is just starting to decline, does such support the assumption of a continued bull market?
* * *
2. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
Following through from employment, once individuals receive their paycheck, they then consume goods and services in order to live.
This is a crucial economic concept to understand, which is the order in which the economy functions. Consumers must “produce” first, so they receive a paycheck, before they can “consume.” This is also the primary problem of Stephanie Kelton’s “Modern Monetary Theory,” which disincentivizes the productive capacity of the population.
Given that Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is a measure of that consumption, and comprises roughly 70% of the GDP calculation, its relative strength has great bearing on the outcome of economic growth.
More importantly, PCE is the direct contributor to the sales of corporations, which generates their gross revenue. So goes personal consumption – so goes revenue. The lower the revenue that flows into company coffers, the more inclined businesses are to cut costs, including employment and stock buybacks, to maintain profit margins.
The chart below is a comparison of the annualized change in PCE to corporate fixed investment and employment. I have made some estimates for the first quarter based on recent data points.
3. Junk Bonds & Margin Debt
While global Central Banks have lulled investors into an expanded sense of complacency through years of monetary support, it has led to willful blindness of underlying risk. As we discussed in “Investor’s Dilemma:”
***“Classical conditioning (also known as Pavlovian or respondent conditioning) refers to a learning procedure in which a potent stimulus (e.g. food) is paired with a previously neutral stimulus (e.g. a bell). What Pavlov discovered is that when the neutral stimulus was introduced, the dogs would begin to salivate in anticipation of the potent stimulus, even though it was not currently present. This learning process results from the psychological “pairing” of the stimuli.”
That “stimuli” over the last decade has been Central Bank interventions. During that period, the complete lack of “fear” in markets, combined with a “chase for yield,” drove “risk” assets to record levels along with leverage. The chart below shows the relationship between margin debt (leverage), stocks, and junk bond yields (which have been inverted for better relevance.)
#4 & 5 Your going to have to go to ZeroHedge and READ and I suggest YOU ""PIMPS"" out there take the TIME and Do IT.........And when the Reality of the HELL China has Created sinks IN............STOP the Buy the DIP BULLSHIT on TV!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
*****Bear markets have a way of “suckering” investors back into the market to inflict the most pain possible. This is why “bear markets” never end with optimism, but in despair.
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