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Alias Born | 12/28/2008 |
Monday, March 30, 2020 10:30:31 AM
Thank you Governors - about 15 of you
Thank you in particular Cuomo and Pritzker and the lady in MI
NO thank you FL GOV
so those models are honest but insanely imprecise because we are testing so so few people - so the work is in the dark - if not pitch black
but 100 million people or 150 million by now are sheltering in place (and searching for TP)
that beats up on the exponential growth
but today - I increase my estimate (based on what I read and the power of compound growth (same as in SPY type 30 year investing in 9% growth)
I had said a week ago - I foresee 1MM cases - and people said I was crazy
Today - based on the DJT numbers that are most likely 150,000 deaths I move to 2-8 million cases
note
with doubling say every 4 days - that 1 million is 2 million if the curve is not bent soon enough and then 4 million and then 8 million all in 9-14 days !!!
easy to say 1MM - and be honest
easy to say 4-8 million cases and be honest
it is because the power - impact - growth - from doubling every 3-4 days is like the waves of the ocean hitting the shore ---- truth and reality we can not change no matter R or D or tall or short
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