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Re: georgebailey post# 30242

Friday, 03/27/2020 2:21:28 PM

Friday, March 27, 2020 2:21:28 PM

Post# of 43716
@george

There are limits to how "wrong" China data can be, and still re-open public transportation and demonstrate empty emergency hospitals.

The probability is that we are between 6 and 8% infected right now.

The numbers double about every 4 days.

All recovery data is at least 7 days old at a minimum.

Technically, if you want a number now, you can only count deaths.

So until we get recovery data we cannot calculate over all expectations like "will it be worse than the flu".

But we can say we are headed for very high % total infected.

So much so that in 24 days it is possible to call it moot "stay at home"

With that in mind and noting China is still playing strong defense against new cases, we can suspect they did not come close to 8% infected.
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