Trying to gauge what will happen next to the market, first a review of where the market has been (approx figures) -
S+P was down 35%, and is now down 25%.
DJIA was down 38%, and is now down 26%
We've had two strong days in a row, and the big question is will the market return back to the previous lows (or even lower), or will it find its footing up around the current levels and then gravitate higher without a return to the previous lows?
That's the big question (wish I had the answer) :o)
One factor suggesting caution is that when charted, these epidemics tend to form a Bell curve. They start off slow, gain momentum, then go exponential, stop going up, and then drop exponentially (a mirror image of the rise).
So, in the US we presumably should soon be entering the exponential up phase, which should usually be the scariest phase (a lot of deaths and new cases). But having already seen the identical process unfold in China and Europe and then reverse, it may be a lot less scary for the US to go through.
Maybe, maybe not, but the possibility exists that we've already seen the lows in the stock market, and the future down legs will basically be a sideways consolidation, albeit with relatively high volatility.
Tough to say, but the case can be made for gradually re-entering the market over the next period of weeks.
