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Re: researcher59 post# 69640

Wednesday, 03/18/2020 8:03:23 AM

Wednesday, March 18, 2020 8:03:23 AM

Post# of 113869
R59, Home builders have seen huge drops for sure! That the drop is so much larger than the market averages is puzzling to me. I know that we are heading into a recession and being a cyclical industry, they should fall. But usually recessions are caused by Fed tightening and higher interest rates. That is not the case this time. Mortgage rates are at or near record lows

Also, with all this fear about the corona virus, I would think that people would prefer to live in a house with some separation between them and their neighbors rather than live in an apartment with numerous community areas. There could literally be someone sick with corona virus in the next door apartment literally a few inches away.

The CEO of Hovanian was on FBN yesterday. He said he was surprised that sales of new homes in their developments have continued to be so strong the last couple of weeks.So the buyers are still out there. I think that there is a fear that the industry could be shut down by the government. From what I have seen around here in Washington state,, building departments remain open but building permit applications and inspection requests are all being done online. Aso, in new home construction, there are typically only one or at most a few workers in there at a time. Social distance is maintained.

In short, I think the builders are way oversold and will come back with a vengeance when the spread of the corona virus finally slows down. LEN announces earnings tomorrow morning. That should provide some guidance on where sales are now.

Btw, WLH, the only stock on your list that is not a big loser was bought out by TMHC a couple months ago and is no longer trading.

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