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Re: JohnCM post# 118437

Monday, 03/16/2020 4:48:16 PM

Monday, March 16, 2020 4:48:16 PM

Post# of 128578
Anything over 20% is considered bear market. I'm not saying 68% I'm saying 60% from the top using rough numbers. If the top is ~30K then we would see an 18K drop as an extreme. I'm sure you get this, but to clarify.

29,551.42 X 0.6 = 17,730.85

So look for 11,820.57 to be the extreme should this really hit the fan.

Your mid point is 14,775.71

Your 40% is 17,730.85.

Now take these numbers and pull a long term chart of the DOW. We are talking years.

Trace a fewstraight lines across obvious points of support and resistence that are closest to these three numbers. Trace your trend lines as well. If we do this we quickly determine that 10-14K (12K) is your average 60% drop. 14 - 16K (15K) is your 50% 16-18K is your 40%.


Ironically at 30% (20685.7) there is no real long term support. So you should expect that if we cannot hold 23.5K as it now appears that the next place we will go is going to be mid 17 which is where I will begin buying.