Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[jakedogman1]

agree... panic selling and rightfully so... i think the fear of the virus and more importantly the fear that there doesn't seem to be a plan or effective leadership...

i keep asking myself (other than the obvious why didn't you sell at $8) the following with respect to the covid situation

biz going forward and chances of interruption? clients are strong and halo needs to get the ball rolling with strategy change... always chance of interruption in this environment...

demand for biz... should increase given Darzelex indications expanding and several competitors failed recent phase 3's .... approval should happen sooner given the load it could take off the health care system....

impact on competition and capacity... my guess is available capacity in the US is prob a good thing.. if anything existing expansion work at other companies could get stalled with equipment etc... or they fast track it given the need...

impact of travel constraints and avid location with new environment ... avid location would be a plus....

net all that and the moat is still there...

don't know when capital gets back into the market... the earnings for many companies will be crushed over the next 12 months.... prob lots of capital carnage with companies that could not weather the storm... cruise lines, travel etc... avid's earnings should increase if they can execute... and the cdmo market will still consolidate... if the halo biz takes off, avid will need to expand and add fill finish capabilities and will need a capital raise... TMO has capital and has a finish fill capacity.... i imagine a company like halo wants finish fill because the other vendor can do it... could be the time to sell or get equity position with a TMO given the environment... a biomanuf facility with a good book of biz could be in play... mgmt has to execute in order to keep the keys to the car... just ask sk and crew...