Canopy Growth Corp (WEED)

[Another Casualty]

Yes. John the virus itself has created massive feedback loops that are going to feed into themselves. This in turn is going to drive the country into a recession. The major markets will continue down because there is no quick and immediate response to resolving this problem. It's going to take years to fully realise the extent of the damage and fully recover from what has been done.

A major example of one feed back loop is the failed OPEC deal and collapse of oil prices. Directly caused by the virus and saudis trying to cut supply to keep prices stable due to the lack of demand for oil (quarantine means no travel means no need for fuel). This was amplified when russia refused (likely a smart move given OPEC is a terrible idea by design anyway).

Another one would be the huge surplus in metals that has now developed due to China manufacturing plants being locked down.

Another is extreme delayed shipping times for back ordered products.

Another is lack of medical supplies and pharmaceutical compounds

Another will be social distancing and its effect on tourism and travel on a large scale to smaller scales (concerts) ect.

Theres to many to name to be honest. These feed back loops are already in motion and the virus is just now beginning to take a real foothold which suggests it's not going away at least until herd immunity is established. Which cannot be done without a vaccination. 1-2 years out at minimum for vaccination. Not to mention the is a very high likelyhood a second wave will occur and it will out do this first wave as most pandemics do.

Keeping this in mind that we are just beginning to see the damage that has already been done and that feed back loops tend to feed into themselves it is easy to see that a recession has begun. We also have similiar accounts in history to back these observations up, however we are in unprecedented times now.

Now soon enough we will have almost 0% interest and all kinds of stimulus efforts aimed at mitigating this disaster. All of which have are unlikely to resolve these problems because we are talking about something that is highly unpredictable and cannot be wished away with monetary policy change.

And no I'm not saying this is the end of the world. I'm simply saying the bull run which has been on going for 10 years was already on it's way out the door, then the virus came along and took the house along with it.

You will see deep red and extreme volatility. In addition to this I think you will see a change in investor sentiment, credit, and monetary policy soon enough.

As I stated awhile ago. Buckle up. We are in for one hell of a ride.

If anyone disagrees with this by all means feel free to share.

My opinion however is recession will occur. This problem will not be immediately resolved. Damage has been done and will continue to be done. This damage may become more sever depending on the next 2-3 weeks.

Best of luck.