You took the estimation of CECL from KB&W, known only in their town, and later you repeated the number talking about a bailout of the enterprises once FnF adopt the new accounting standard. That doesn't exempt you from accountability for your big mistake, as you assumed that number as correct.
It's false that FnF have ever talked about the impact of the CECL standard in their 10Q reports, prior to unveiling it in the latest earnings report. If any, I only see FMCC saying "it will increase (perhaps substantially) the provision for credit losses". So, nothing concrete. So, you are misleading when you say that it was "as expected" the tiny provision highlighted by FnF. You have been caught in an attempt to spread fears among the shareholders.
If you say that the common stock is "a lottery ticket", it only shows that you lack understanding of FnF's conservatorships. The obligations SPS outstanding is not the final picture once the Govt unveils the ultimate resolution. The same occurred with the FHFA and the FHLBanks when it suddenly announced in 2011 that the obligation with the Treasury had been fully satisfied (both interest payments and the principal of the REFCorp's 1989 bailout)
Also it's corroborated in HERA's Restriction On Capital Distributions for undercapitalized enterprises.
My recommendation to you and your "team" is to read the law before investing in FnF because they are statutory corporations. The law isn't the contract SPSPA signed by two rogue Agencies.
My name is written in my Twitter account where I post daily analysis, because I have nothing to hide. For that reason, everybody knows me here without posting my name.
