Serious people like Dr. Fauci have tried to get it through Trump's head that a vaccine will take about 18 months to test, and then produce in quantities that would be of benefit to the public.
A therapeutic is a very different matter. Anything that already exists could be tried with coronavirus, and if benefits are seen, it could be used. While our products aren't yet approved, they have been determined safe and permitted to go into pivotal trials, so while they may be more difficult to use against coronavirus, they still should be able to be made available. The difference is, any approved drug would be readily available for off label use, our drugs would have to be made available by the company, and regulatory official would no doubt have to permit it.
I believe it's probably easier to do such testing in Israel, Germany, etc than here in the U.S., but if positive results were seen, it's acceptance could come quickly almost everywhere. With safety already established, efficacy should be easily judged as people on death's door recover.
I seriously wonder if eventually coronavirus will become a part of the flu shout that's recommended yearly, or if it will have to be administered separately. As I understand our annual flu vaccine, the experts guess at what the flu threats will be for the coming year. If they're right, it's a light flu season, if they're wrong, it's a bad season. As of now, flu deaths are far greater in number than coronavirus, but a much smaller percentage. Of course there is no way to know how big the spread of coronavirus may be, if it grows to anything close to those who annually get the flu the deaths could grow into the hundreds of thousands.
What's clear is that by the time they know a patient has coronavirus, not a bad cold or the flu, that patient may have spread it to many people. For all intents and purposes those who get it feel no different from those with the flu, they have a fever, they're congested, they cough, in short they can spread the disease, and they have no idea if they're spreading the flu, a cold, or coronavirus. Pneumonia is what can make all these diseases potentially deadly, and I seriously wonder if our drug may benefit pneumonia patients.
In short, I believe that the spread of coronavirus cannot be thwarted, by the time you know someone has it, it's probably been exposed to tens to hundreds of people, many may not get it, but some will. Even if it turns out that 99% will survive, 1% is a huge number as the disease spreads. The prior slashing of the CDC budget no doubt has made this worse, but even with more and better testing kits it would have been impossible to prevent this from threatening people. Personally I must consider myself among the threatened, I'm a senior, and while my stem cell transplant is approaching 5 years, some would still consider me immune compromised. If I get ill, I'll certainly be in contact with my Dr. at City of Hope.
We all know the flu runs it's course annually, by late Spring it's pretty much gone. Trump is hoping the same is true in Coronavirus, while I hope he's right, the fact that it's seen in Australia, Africa, and South America, where it's Summer, it's a concern that it may not be a seasonal phenomena. Hopefully exposure will result in naturally building a resistance, but again, that may just be wishful thinking. I just hope our drugs can be given a try in pneumonia, if they don't work, so be it, but if they do, no telling how many lives may be saved.
Gary
Gary
