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Monday, March 02, 2020 9:50:09 AM
this shock - will get larger and larger - and even without panic - we likely will lose 5% of production
the GDP will likely start running at 1/2% growth v 1.8% (let alone the DJT promised with tax cut 4%)
the market at 30,000 is priced to 2.5%
the decline in market will be IMO limited (say a slow added 5% decline? with days of dumb fear) ---- because much of the reduction in GDP is not a LOSS forever but a delay to be made up
So I expect a real measureable decline in GDP growth (or non growth) for say 6 months (lagged reporting) and then a bound back as DELAYED production starts up
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