AVEO Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AVEO)

[Biotech Pharmer]

From MesaBoogie on ST, a guy who is very in tune with drug trials and outcomes.

"In case your trying to figure out the final OS HR, basically it's neck and neck as of August but the trend is in Tivo's favor. Basically four categories of "alive" patients left:

1. Progression Free and On Therapy:
Tivo has 20 of these patients. Because 31 Tivo patients had a 30% tumor reduction (response) and the median duration of response has not been met (i.e., of the 31 responders, the 16th patient to regress into disease hasn’t occurred) we know that at least 15 of the 20 on therapy have had their tumors shrink by at least 30%. They are highly likely to live from August 2019 to May 2020.
Sora has 2 of these patients. Enough said.

2. On Therapy following PFS Event:
These patients remain on therapy even though they had a PFS event (as death is not possible for this group, it is either disease progression or an interruption in therapy). If they are on therapy, it is a good sign they will live from August 2019 to May 2020.Tivo has 13 patients, Sora has 4.

3. Off Therapy But Alive

Most likely to die. Tivo has 25 of these patients, and Sora has 48. So, Sora’s “pool” of likely deaths is much larger than Tivo’s.

4. Off Therapy and Lost to Follow Up or Withdrew Consent to be Monitored

Tivo has 3 of these patients, and Sora 8.
I think AVEO located the LTFU patients, and the ones left in this category left the study and requested not to be monitored. AVEO is allowed, under FDA regulations, to check public records to determine survival status."

Again, enough said about Tivo vs Sora.