"If you do something 8 times, and get the same outcome, was that an accident? As a matter of fact, they have done it many more times than 8."
Rayo, at this point I think we have to honor Mojo's distinction between laboratory and commercial production. KBLB has successfully bred silkworms under laboratory conditions. They have not yet successfully shown they can replicate this under commercial conditions. Until that point, I am not convinced their technology is 'solid.'
Here are some strange things to think about. First, KBLB acknowledged they had noticed 'genetic drift' in their silkworms. This announcement was at least a year ago, perhaps two. In actuality, I don't believe this statement was accurate. Genetic drift occurs when the frequency of genetic variants changes over time. This typically happens in small populations. A small number of cats are swept to an island. Half have green eyes, the other half brown. Over time, the population changes so that 90% have green, 10% brown. That is genetic drift.
Genetic drift does not occur if the population is homozygous and breeding true. There is no difference in the frequency of expression of a gene for a homozygous trait and therefore no genetic drift is possible.
Regardless of what the true problem was, KBLB never PR'd that they had solved the problem. I hope they were at least able to manage it, but without knowing more about the problem, it's hard to know what is really going on.
Next, in their recent failure, the cocoons mysteriously disappeared from the system. Prodigy was supposed to be in the process of packing cocoons for shipment. But we never heard what happened to those cocoons. Packing for shipment means they've already killed the silkworms inside, so they could not use those as breeding stock. Were all the cocoons bad? Was there a problem with the silk? Did they dispose of the cocoons? Were there simply too few to ship, so they are holding onto them at Prodigy? Did the reelers discover a problem when they tried to reel the cocoons?
Obviously KBLB could simply report on what happened. But they didn't. Neither did they report their problem with genetic drift was solved. Neither did they state why they sent equipment to Prodigy to test silk strength.
KBLB has a simple way to quell the anxiety of shareholders (evident by the declining share price): Just explain whatever happened. There could be lots of satisfactory explanations for what is going on. Silence only makes the problem look serious.
For this reason, I understand why investors (myself included) want more proof that KBLB has overcome all of the challenges to commercial-scale production. I am not saying that KBLB's technology is unsound, but I sure don't feel comfortable proclaiming that it is sound. We have to await either commercial-scale production or a far more satisfactory explanation of what is happening at Prodigy.
I suspect I'll have to wait another two months for this proof. Hopefully KBLB will scrape up some money from somewhere to keep the doors open until then. It's also disconcerting that KBLB has not provided any indication of how it will remain in business during this next quarter. It certainly isn't from their cash reserves and it certainly isn't from sales.
AI
