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NY Crude Oil Futures - WARNING SPIKE LOW »» Monthly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 22, 2020

THE ANALYTICAL POSTURE CURRENTLY AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Feb. 21, 2020: The NY Crude Oil Futures closing today at 5338 is immediately trading down about 12% for the year from last year's closing of 6106. Up to this moment in time, this market has been rising for this market has been rising for 5 months going into February suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 4931 while it is still trading above last month's close of 5156 implying near-term strength.


ECM COMMENTARY

The last ECM target date was Sun. Mar. 13, 2022, which was-751 days ago. This at least warns we need to pay attention to at least this sector coming into a possible alignment and shift in trend with theis trurning point in the ECM.

FOCUSING ON TREND

Immediately, the market remains bullish on the short-term levels of our indicators while the long-term trend is bullish and our cyclical strength is neutral.

The historical major high took place back in 2008 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 11 years. The correction since that high has been a 17% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 10102 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2016 and we have bounced some 104% which has been a very strong rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 8653 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 4533 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.

A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during January. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now, so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 5097 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 5097 closing yesterday at 5338. We now need to close below 5097 on a monthly basis to imply a continued decline is possible.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 6565 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during January. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 6660 back during April 2019. Critical support still underlies this market at 5098 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We can see this market has been down for the past month. The previous high made during January on the Monthly level at 6565 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. The previous low of 4236 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level. However, we still remain above key support 5099 on a closing basis.

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