Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[Wise Man]

***RUMOR***JUSTICE KAVANAUGH HAS ALREADY WRITTEN THE MAJORITY OPINION FOR THE DISSOLUTION OF THE FHFA AND THE CFPB, TO BE RELEASED ON MARCH 6th. The CFPB case will hold Oral Arguments on March 3rd, Tuesday. The next day in the afternoon, there is the Justices' Conference where they vote and come up with a decision and direct a Justice to write the majority opinion. If the decision is unanimous, it could be unveiled very fast. So fast that Kavanaugh has already written it and he has included the FHFA case also at Scotus, which is a replica of CFPB case. Obviously the Govt is aware of this and readies a final resolution of Fanniegate, reimbursement of funds to FnF and payment of damages to the Equity holders. FnF common stocks are worth $240ps (adjusted PER 13 times). The JPS will fetch their par-value.
The damages for the common stocks include a takings claim for the Warrant, it could be in the neighborhood of $10ps. FNMA 80% of that amount taking into account that it dragged FMCC into conservatorship (only 53% capital surplus over the Risk-Based Capital on June 2008 and it paid dividends on August 2008 vs 113% capital surplus in FMCC) and also FMCC shareholders have a case of preemptive rights in 2008 with the issuance of the warrant (the conservator should have triggered them) and also that the BOD of FMCC opted out of the Control Share Acquisition statute (anti-takeover measure) in the bylaws without shareholder approval, one day before conservatorshp (both cases arise under Virginia Code). The JPS, 20% of that amount (they have traded closer to their fair value all along and they don't have a Takings claim with the warrant)