Agile Therapeutics Inc (AGRX)

[jimmy667]

Real-World Valuation for AGRX.
Very good and qualified article:
Puts it at $14/share Go It alone and $15-20 Buyout. Based on very conservative market share numbers. Soon you will start seeing Ads in Mags and even TV for Twirla. If you hold your shares you will be smiling but if you get scared and sell you will think woulda coulda shoulda!
This article was before Perceptive Advisors made the milestone interest-only loan for $35 million that takes the secondary share offering off the table. This is big and it will sink in with Tutes over the weekend. All approval risk is now removed.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4318374-agile-therapeutics-400-upside

This is an add on to existing drugs true, but there is a wide market and demand. Only 5% of a huge market is a very large number. What woman would not want the latest and safest most convenient option?

The article made a conservative estimate from the peak sales value side so I will not repeat that. This was for Twirla ONLY! It did not include the SkinFusion technology that can be applied to a wide range of OTC and Rx drugs. SF will be particularly valuable will be for NSAIDs like Meloxicam and Advil that have adverse GI effects in oral form. What is that worth to BPs with a lot of consumers reach to women? JNJ (bandaids Baby powder and EVERYTHING ELSE) McNeil (Advil and tons of others) SkinFusion is proved to be a better patch already FDA approved along with Twirla.

Now looking at Twirla only it cost a minimum of $600 million to develop and any new ones will have to go through the more stringent FDA requirements for BC drugs the AGRX just got approved. A big risk for BP to gamble $600 million-plus and years to develop a different one.
AGRX has more BC specialty patches in the pipeline. BP will develop those as well. Add more value.
There has not been a new option for transdermal BC in many many years and tears. Expect rapid uptake by Xulane users. BP Milan may see the threat to Xulane sales and the value of the pipeline and make an offer.

The accumulated deficit of $254 million would be a tax write off against profits so Agile has an extra $254 million worth to a profitable BP or if Go It Alone has value to the Company for tax write off reasons.

BP would likely get the tax write off for the entire purchase ($1-3 Billion?)so future sales are that much more valuable.

BP may pay for the license only for Twirla leaving the company with the pipeline and many more drugs to take through the approval process.
This was a difficult process and Management was highly skilled in getting it approved. The stock market at least the experienced Tutes will value that. Agile is now a successful and proven quality innovative company.

Now add the cost of approval $254, tax write off $254MM pipeline $250MM and approved drug by sales metric $750 peak sales/profit potential and one could glean that $1.25Billion would be a doable Buy Out price.
$1250MM/70.4MM shares=$17.85/share buyout price.

Current go it alone:
$12/share
Buyout:
$18/share unless bidding war.
This is comparable to what the writer of the article figured, but figured another way.