PROTALIX BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC. (PLX)

[Spideyboy]

Fabrazyme and Replagal's combined sales in 2018 were 1.4 billion USD. Assuming it is the same for 2019 and 2020 (admittedly poorly balancing the increase in diagnosed patients with the loss of market share to Galafold), then 85% of the market would be approx 1.2 billion.

Not only that but the ERT sales of 1.4 billion are based on 2 products that are essentially rubbish. A half life of 2 hours at the most is a joke when you only get 1 infusion per 2 weeks and most of the enzyme is broken down by the body due to bonding anti-bodies, and is taken up 10 fold more by the liver breaking it down rather than going into target organs. People still have terrible eGFR slopes.

Now we bring in a product that essentially stops their degradation of the eGFR slope, and slope their inevitable slide to dialysis and death. How much higher would that product be able to be priced. Meaning the current ERT 1.4 billion sales could be in the region of 2 billion revenue. 85% of that would be 1.7 billion.

Then if we apply the average maximum royalty to PLX of about 35% = approx 600 million to PLX. Plus the milestones. Then onto OPRX-106.