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Sunday, 10/05/2003 9:52:08 PM

Sunday, October 05, 2003 9:52:08 PM

Post# of 19037
Portions printed with permission from today's weekly update. From the great technical analyst and person who sees and utilizes varying monetary relationships and trends to a greater degree than any one on the web, Steve Saville:

http://www.speculative-investor.com/new/market_logon.asp


<The only surprise so far is that the drop in the gold price to test support at 370 occurred over the space of 2 days rather than 2 weeks. This, in turn, probably means that the gold-market correction is going to be over a bit sooner than previously expected.>

<Whereas the daily chart of December gold suggested a target of $370 for the current correction, the below weekly chart shows equivalent support at $365. Either way, gold is probably close to its correction low.>

<If the current correction in the gold market turns out to be longer and deeper than we currently expect then this would indicate to us that a major peak in the gold price was most likely not going to occur until well into next year. We see little chance that the spike up to $395 during the week before last will turn out to be a major peak given the substantial downside in the US$ that we are confident will occur over the coming 6 months. In our view, a major peak in the gold price will only occur after the gold market has discounted a drop in the Dollar Index to around the 80 level.>


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