PhD, I will offer my opinion one more time since you keep asking, then let it go. It’s getting tiring. IMHO, two years ago CaverStem WAS ready to go as they saw it. In 2018 the trial was well on its way and the year of watching the 40 patients was far along, due to wrap up in a August if I remember correctly. All CMTH did was attend the AUA to test the waters. That immediately garnered the attention of 8 doctors if memory serves. That interest and a decent SS got the typical buzz in the OTC and the PPS started to move. Most of us were in by then and remember it well. It was an exiting time. The trial was not over and peer review was a long way off, but the doctors involved and the 8 interested doctors all saw the preliminary evidence that the treatment was relatively simple and very safe and very effective. Using your own stem cells is safe even to a layperson, so it was easy for the doctors to get interested.
The downside at the time was the Magellan separator needed was expensive and my DD tells me the insurance for stem cells treatments was not taking into effect these were not foreign stem cells, but your own, and is very expensive as well. That caused 3 of the doctors to not sign up.
The other doctors were targeting the fall of 2018, and IMHO, the buzz would have kept up the PPS. BUT, unknown to all of us (poor communications) it was all on hold for months as they switched to the 2.0 RanFac method.
That delay alone happened over the winter and killed the PPS to just above .01 where it was the previous year before the AUA.
Those remaining doctors all opened up in the spring, but the damage was already done. The buzz was gone. The OTC is fickle and it is super hard to get moving again. Revs were obviously low and notes had to be issued. That is what really started the decline in the PPS.
The next big thing IMHO was again, poor communication. Because CMTH knew the critics would debate the clinical trial was done with the Magellan separator and not the RanFac method that has a stronger stem cell concentration, they decided to delay the clinical paper further by adding the first 100 RanFac patients. Brilliant move in my mind, but it needed to be explained and It was not, and the critics made hay with the delays and doubt.
There is much more to the story, but those are the two main reason we are were we are IMHO. I think CMTH was ready to commercialize to a degree two years ago, and felt that if they picked up 8 doctors at a convention, they would pick up scores more easily, but it was very fluid and things changed as they went along. Not having the clinical paper was a deal breaker for many doctors.
I also think, and this is just a guess, knowing the paper would not be out for a long time since they added the 100 new patients, CMTH decided not to spend the money to PR happenings and just patiently wait for the paper. That strategy, if it was one, or at least that reality, puts us right where we are. A SS that spiraled out of control partly of their doing and partly due to the way the OTC works with MM’s and we now have a horrible PPS.
Can CMTH recover from those events? I think they can, but it will never be what it could have been, that’s obvious. I also think StemSpine is the big brother and the game changer. It is deep in its clinical trail and CMTH did say in late 2019 it is about ready to get the green light. We needed that news before the RS IMO but I still think it will happen sooner than later.
We have already seen three CaverStem offices open post Clinical Paper and I suspect many more are now willing to join since they have the paper they needed. And there is a clear business plan in the filings. Sell enough RanFac kits to make a profit. It’s CLEAR, it’s just not working yet. The only other way I can think of is to sell or license your patent to others. Is that what they are doing with AmnioStem?
Time will tell if they succeed. I will hold my shares like DD until 2025 if I have too. The science keeps me hooked.
This is all IMO, based on my own DD. I could be wildly off, but that is how I simply see it. One last time...... Scams and frauds don’t have patents, trademarks and clinical trials and medical professionals using the product. Struggling companies do. Let’s see if they can win their struggles.
