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NY Crude Oil Futures - Temp High »» Monthly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 1, 2020

OUR ANALYTICAL OUTLOOK AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jan. 31, 2020: NY Crude Oil Futures closed below our indicating ranges on the Daily level. The market closing today at 5156 is immediately trading down about 15% for the year from last year's closing of 6106. Factually, this market has been rising for this market has been rising for 5 months going into February suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level.


ECM COMMENTARY

The last ECM target date was Sat. Jan. 18, 2020, which was about two weeks ago. This at least warns we need to pay attention to at least this sector coming into a possible alignment and shift in trend with theis trurning point in the ECM.

RECENT ACTION

At present, the market remains quite bearish below all our system support indicators with resistance starting at 5268. The broader cyclical system indicators are also in a bearish position while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bearish.

The historical major high took place back in 2008 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 11 years. The correction since that high has been a 17% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 10102 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2016 and we have bounced some 97% which has been a very strong rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 8653 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 4533 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.

A possible change in trend appears due come February in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during January. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now, so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 5097 but closed on the weak side and we need to penetrate that level on a monthly closing basis to suggest perhaps a further decline.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 6565 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during January. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 6660 back during April 2019. Critical support still underlies this market at 5098 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We can see this market has been down for the past month. The previous high made during January on the Monthly level at 6565 has now been exceeded in the recent rally. The previous low of 4236 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level. However, we still remain above key support 5099 on a closing basis.

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