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Friday, January 24, 2020 4:28:23 AM
But I am thinking yes and no on that for the reasons mentioned.
Something is weird here with this data.
My best figuring says we're between 9.5% and 11.25% or they IDMC would have said something.
It is possible they are letting it run because FDA approves things with barely 7%+ nowadays and they see the benefit of that...
It is possible they are letting it run because the figures are too stunning to believe...
( this one seems mitigated by the pressure to save lives ASAP )
Finally, there is no way that the standard of care baseline could be here today. So there is definitely effectiveness. Somewhere between "possible to squeak by the FDA" and "OMG this is amazing" both extremes included.
From the start I've tried to find the failure/risk. For those thinking that I am being negative I do not have a model that shows less than 11.25%
This conversation is about an apparently hidden variable.
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