Master Schmucko doesn't give up:
Wang Binggang: Promoting power exchange model on operating vehicles such as taxis is expected to be profitable
Ji Ming Yang in the Ji Ming YangYesterday
Editor's note: The replacement of fuel vehicles by electric vehicles is the general trend of the times. However, problems such as short cruising range, long charging time, and annual decline in battery energy have always been the bottlenecks that restrict the development of electric vehicles. Especially for the taxis and network-reserved cars with high operating intensity, how to solve the problems of inoperability during charging and the battery decaying year by year. The Zhongyang Mingyang Intelligent Charging Power Station has given the answer, and has been widely recognized by authoritative people and the whole society. .
On January 10-12, the 2020 China Electric Vehicles Hundred People Forum was officially held at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse. Focusing on the theme of “grasping the situation, focusing on transformation, and leading innovation”, the forum invited relevant government departments and representatives of industry organizations and leading companies in the fields of automotive, energy, transportation, cities, and communications to explore the transformation and innovation of industries, enterprises, and policies. Study and find out the direction and path of industrial adjustment in the next 3-5 years.
Wang Binggang, the leader of the National New Energy Vehicle Innovation Engineering Expert Group , delivered a speech at the New Energy Vehicle Technology Route Forum. He believes that the era of large subsidies has passed, and the new energy vehicle industry must face the market and publish for all aspects of new energy vehicles. Out of view.
The following is the speech record:
good afternoon everyone! Glad to speak here. I will focus on the perspective of the development of pure electric vehicles. Everyone pays attention to plug-in hybrids and fuel cells, but because of time, I only talk about the views on pure electric vehicles today.
Subsidies play a key role in promoting the development of new energy vehicles, which are manifested in many aspects, such as technological progress, enthusiasm of enterprises, and the formation of industrial chains. After the initial formation of the market in recent years, the infrastructure has gradually improved. Because the main aspect of this policy is very good, and it has played a very important role. Of course, the subsidy policy itself has some disadvantages, so the incentive policy that is dominated by the subsidy policy, my point is that it has fulfilled its historical mission well. In the next step, regardless of whether the state continues to maintain a certain level of subsidies, it will maintain its current level. The current amount is very small and will not play a major role. In other words, no matter whether the subsidies will be maintained a little or not after 2021, I think the era of large subsidies has passed. Therefore, I think the new energy vehicle industry must face the market and meet the challenges. This is a major attitude. After 2020, we should further improve the design of the new incentive policy system. In the case of subsidy withdrawal or very small subsidies, how to establish a new policy system to continuously promote the rapid development of new energy vehicles. This is my point about subsidies.
(I) I have a few opinions on the development of electric vehicles that everyone cares about. There are four aspects. After the subsidy is withdrawn, mileage anxiety and other problems should be solved according to the characteristics of different vehicle types. (Such as PPT) This statistic is very meaningful. This is the statistics of the new energy vehicle national data platform on the actual vehicles running on the road. It is not a questionnaire answer in the past, it is a statistic based on actual data. This data statistic has calculated the daily mileage characteristics of various new energy vehicles. I think this number is very important and is the actual starting point for considering the problem in the future. Most of the private passenger cars are concentrated in dozens of kilometers, with an average of only 30 kilometers, and 90% of the daily mileage is 110 kilometers. However, we can also see that private passenger cars still have a certain distribution in the longer driving range. The situation of taxis is significantly different from that of private passenger cars. According to this characteristic, when we were discussing the next technology roadmap a few days ago, the pure electric vehicle drafting group discussed how to outline the technology of electric vehicles in the next step. What about requirements? In the past, we were guided by the mileage, such as how many years did you continue to drive? Do you still say so in the future?
In the end, everyone realized an idea, which is also very interesting. According to the distribution of daily mileage of private cars just mentioned, can we divide pure electric vehicles into two categories:
The first category is called universal. This popular type is based on urban travel, and buying a car is for urban travel. In addition, cities with no purchase restrictions can be used as a second car for families. But now after investigation, the second car often becomes his first car, and the first car is used in terms of use, which is auxiliary in terms of his purchasing psychology, but in fact has become the most important travel tool. Do n’t ask too much for the driving range of this kind of car. For example, is it OK for this kind of car to have a driving range of 300 kilometers? If the charging can be guaranteed, there is no problem driving in the city. Let ’s estimate, according to the technical requirements of such a car, the cost of this car basically has the conditions to compete with fuel cars of the same level, without subsidies. The purchase price of this car is very close to that of ordinary fuel cars, and it uses funds It is very cheap, and the maintenance cost is very cheap. Such cars are fully equipped.
The second type is called high-end type. This kind of car is everyone's pursuit of performance. For example, it must have very good power performance. To maximize the high power of electric vehicles, it requires a relatively long driving range, 400, 500 kilometers or even higher. It is very important that his ability to bear costs is relatively high, and this type of car does not care about subsidies. This type of car represents many new technologies of electric vehicles reflected in the top. Its competition with fuel cars should be based on its better performance. Consumers like it very much. When we consider this issue, the two categories of car sharing will not be entangled. This car is such a feature, that type of car is that feature. Is this the way to think about the next technology roadmap?
(2) Consumers should be assured that electric vehicles should achieve zero fires.This must be a resolute measure to be taken in the next stage. The fire in the previous paragraph was still a little more. Although we have not had a major fire yet, the frequency of fires is relatively high. The reason is that technology is not in place. It is also related to our excessive pursuit of energy density and driving mileage. Some companies are fully charged with battery energy, in fact, some battery cells are often overcharged, which should be the hidden reason for fire. So everyone has to settle down again to do safety technology work well, and leave enough room for energy density or car capacity. In addition, I propose to promote the special charging protection technology of the special call company. We must form a safety guarantee link from battery production to automobile production and finally use. Electric vehicles can completely achieve zero fires and accidents. This must be possible. The safety of electric vehicles is definitely better than that of fuel vehicles. I am sure of this.
( 3) Promoting the power exchange model on operating vehicles such as taxis is expected to be profitable.In the first picture, we can see that the mileage of taxis is very different from that of private individuals. The mileage of taxis each day is relatively large, especially in big cities. It is not enough to turn on the air conditioner. The power exchange mode is very suitable for taxis, and Beijing already has many. I recently went to Guangzhou to inspect the power exchange mode and chat with the driver. They find it economically appropriate. Because they charge per kilometer (0.35 yuan / km), they save about half of their own charging fees. Taxi drivers are very welcome. And he does n’t need to worry about the battery life. It has nothing to do with him. He does n’t have mileage anxiety or battery life anxiety. But can the exchange operator make money? According to the data provided by Guangzhou Olympics Electric Bus Co., he said that if the station ratio can be 70 to 80, one station can share 70-80 cars on average and change the electricity more than 200 times a day. They think that the power station can be profitable I think this can be done.
(IV) Separation of vehicle and electricity is a valuable solution to the anxiety of mileage and battery life of high-end cars.I just talked about popular cars and taxis. Everyone may be concerned about high-end cars like Tesla and Weilai. How to solve the anxiety of mileage? I recently took a look at the "battery bank" concept proposed by Weilai, which means that the battery must be properly separated from the car. It has several plans, such as paying 980 yuan a month, and I sell you a bare car, you can pay the battery every month, and it can be upgraded. You don't have to worry about what to do if my battery is old after a few years of battery improvement. A little money can make you upgrade. There are many ways he can use the residual value of the battery from the car. How the battery of Weilai operates and how it is separated from the vehicle frees consumers from anxiety about the battery, and the manufacturer itself can make a profit. In this regard, I think Weilai Company proposed such a concept, and I think it is very valuable to the highest-end electric vehicles below. The basis for realizing vehicle power separation and increasing the residual value of batteries is a high-quality, reasonably long-life battery. As if this line speaks (such as PPT), the life curve of the blue line is definitely difficult to maintain its residual value, and it may have no value after getting off the car. The battery life curve of the orange line may have re-use value, reducing the cost of the battery from the aspect of increasing the residual value of the battery, and reducing the cost of the entire vehicle.
(5) Electrification of urban public transport must strive to achieve sustainable development.Subsidies for car purchases have a significant impact on the technical route of urban buses. When we first promoted the electrification of urban buses, there were several technical routes, but in the end, long-distance driving mileage prevailed. Because the subsidy is subsidized according to the driving mileage, in fact, it is unreasonable for a bus to pull a lot of batteries, the energy consumption is also very high, and the cost is also very high. It is also problematic to investigate the carbon emissions carefully. There is no way around this, as subsidy policies have guided buses to install more batteries. I think buses may have some more reasonable technical routes in the future. In the past, I had a lot of discussions and researches with Teacher Wang Hewu in this regard. Teacher Wang Hewu also published many articles in this area. I believe that there will definitely be more reasonable technical routes for bus electrification in the future, such as Beijing's Shuangyuan trolley bus. We also recently held a seminar, which is a suitable technical solution for Beijing.
(6) To find applicable market segments, electric trucks are also useful.Everyone thinks that the electrification of trucks is not very pleasant to say, but if you find the entry point and the characteristics, pure electric trucks are also useful. I recently heard a very interesting report: Hongwei New Energy's company developed a 90-ton mine source vehicle, which is characterized by pulling down the mine from the mountain to convert the potential energy of the mountain ore into automatic energy and battery charging. When you go uphill, it is empty, when you go uphill, it is 30 tons, when you go downhill, it is 90 tons. This energy difference is more than enough to help electric cars. Over the next few days, the SOC curve is basically unchanged, and it can basically maintain its own operation, but in fact there is still some maintenance in general, and it still takes a little fuel, but the fuel has been spent very little. This car is initially calculated, and it can be taken over the cost of a fuel car in more than a year. If we have mastered the characteristics and technology of electric vehicles, we cut into some market segments, and there are some scenarios for commercial vehicles that have the prospect of developing electric vehicles.
(7) The construction and operation of infrastructure must be clarified.This is very important. As soon as we talk about infrastructure construction, we will talk about the construction of charging stations, how many charging stations are built, and how many public charging stations are built. This is sometimes not comprehensive enough. As a result of statistics, the current proportion of private car purchase and distribution piles has reached about 70%, that is to say, 70% of privately bought cars have their own piles, so most consumers charge on their own piles, 30% The other half is charged in the company, that is, about 10% of consumers may go to the public charging pile to charge. Of course, public charging piles are still very important. At least about 10% of consumers need to charge. In addition, when cars with private charging piles need subsidies to the outside, they also need to charge at public charging piles. In addition, we must pay more attention to the combination of parking and charging solutions. Various cities combine the two issues of parking difficulty and charging difficulty, and charging at a parking place is the best and most economical solution. This type of solution will be integrated with the power grid in the future. the best. This is true, but it is often put aside when we do it. We are more discussing the issue of public charging piles. Therefore, private popular electric vehicles should be based on parking charging piles, supplemented by public charging piles; high-end electric vehicles can adopt multiple charging methods, such as slow charging, fast charging, battery replacement, battery banking, and other methods to meet Its needs; vehicles in the public domain should be based on the characteristics of each type of vehicle, such as the taxi just mentioned must be replaced with electricity. For example, the bus may be dual-source trackless or fast charging, which should be determined according to specific circumstances. In addition, we should promote the use of renewable energy sources such as photovoltaics, hydropower, and wind energy, promote microgrid technology, and more closely integrate the promotion of power generation and energy reform. We will work in this direction in the future. I reminded that in the construction of infrastructure, we must clarify our thinking and do not lead one-sidedly to one aspect.
(8) Power battery is still the first factor that determines the success or failure of electric vehicles.The development of electric vehicles today is closely related to the progress of batteries. We will have an expectation on the next development of electric vehicles. I think we must actively promote the technical progress of power batteries, including the industrialization of the next generation of new batteries, and we strive to do so, but we must also proceed from reality. At present, I relatively conservatively estimate that I have also discussed with some battery experts. For a considerable period of time in the future, only 300Wh / kg technology may be maintained for a considerable period of time, that is, our battery should still use this as a standpoint in the future. To consider the development of our electric vehicles, we hope that newer batteries will appear. This is our expectation, but it cannot be taken as the view that the entire industry is now based on new batteries in the future. We need to make 300Wh / kg, or even 300Wh / Kg or less, such as lithium iron phosphate, 200Wh / Kg. In my opinion, the most important thing is to have a battery that is in my hands and can be industrialized. The most important are the following: safety first. To reduce costs, we must reduce costs. I think battery factories must work hard. The life is not only the life of the car, but also the life of the step utilization and reuse, and the performance should come after that. From an industrial perspective, we also need to consider (complete) the shortcomings of technology, including the shortcomings of chips, and we must work hard to make the power battery technology more solid. Finally, we need to make a good industrial layout. With the popularity of electric vehicles and the increase in output, what is the reasonable layout of batteries? I think this is worth considering by the entire industry, including battery factories and OEMs. Otherwise, there may be a disconnection at that time.
(9) Local governments should work with car companies to promote the popularization of electric vehicles.I just talked about the policy issues. I think the new energy vehicles and electric vehicles can achieve the current results, which is inseparable from the efforts of the central government and local governments. And I think the local government has done very effective work. I cite the "Liuzhou Model" here. After investigation, there is no restriction on the purchase of traditional cars in Liuzhou, and no restrictions on the number of cars. It is a third-tier city. How can it develop electric cars? Many occasions have been introduced in this regard, everyone has already understood, and now many cities across the country are also studying and understanding these experiences in Liuzhou. In general, the government must start from other aspects to promote the promotion of electric vehicles.
(10) Go abroad and participate in international competition.I think China's electric vehicle industry needs to develop. It is impossible to see only the domestic market. Our electric vehicle penetration is the highest in the world, and many of our electric vehicles are also good. Especially in terms of cost performance, I think we must be internationally competitive. In terms of buses and taxis, I think they may be one of the best in the world. So we should attach importance to the international market in addition to the domestic market. We already have some companies going to foreign markets and have achieved very good results, including big cars and small cars. During this period of time, everyone talked more about Tesla's entry into China, which would have a great impact on China. We can also go abroad. We will also have a great impact on foreign markets. Many companies should consider going abroad as their own strategic arrangement.
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