Wednesday, January 15, 2020 6:40:13 AM
Maya Sasson January 14, 2020
Exact Sciences’ (EXAS) preliminary quarterly results blew expectations out of the water.
Yesterday, the molecular diagnostics company released preliminary results for its fourth quarter that exceeded analysts’ estimates. Total revenue for the quarter is expected to land between $294 million and $296 million, reflecting a top-line beat of about $4 million to $6 million.
The better-than-expected outcome was primarily driven by its acquisition of Genomic Health, which was finalized back in November and gave it access to Oncotype DX gene expression tests that have been used in treatment decisions for over 1 million cancer patients globally. During the quarter, Oncotype DX test volume growth of 14%, or total test volume of 41,000, helped Genomic Health generate revenue of between $118 and $119 million, up 13% year-over-year.
On top of this, Cologuard, its FDA approved noninvasive, at-home colon cancer screening test, will most likely see revenue come in within the range of $229 million to $230 million. While this falls in line with the consensus estimate, BTIG analyst Amanda Murphy reminds investors that the difference between consensus and guidance is the highest it has been this year. She points out that “consensus for Cologuard revenue was at the high-end of management’s guidance range for the quarter.” If achieved, the figure would also represent a year-over-year increase of 61%.
Based on the expected Cologuard revenue, it isn’t surprising to the analyst, then, that volumes for the screening test are also expected to match the estimate. The results indicate Cologuard test volume of 477,000 could be in store. This, however, would not only come in above management’s guidance of between 465,000 to 475,000, but also reflect impressive growth of 63%.
While management isn’t offering any 2020 guidance before its earnings call in February, Murphy notes that the results reaffirm her already established bullish thesis. “Since Cologuard was approved in 2014, Exact has secured broad reimbursement coverage, developed a large and experienced sales force, increased its lab capacity to seven million tests per year, and made significant investments in IT infrastructure. We believe Cologuard is currently at an inflection point and expect the company to hit its long-term goal of 40% market penetration by the end of 2030,” she explained. The four-star analyst added, “While not explicitly included in our current valuation model, we are also optimistic around the potential for Exact’s liquid biopsy test for liver cancer.”
Bearing this in mind, Murphy maintained both a Buy rating as well as a $127 price target. This conveys her confidence in Exact’s ability to climb 40% higher in the next twelve months. (To watch Murphy’s track record, click here)
As for the rest of the Street? It turns out that other analysts wholeheartedly agree with the BTIG analyst. Out of 9 total analysts that have published a recommendation over the last three months, 100% see the stock as a Buy. This makes the consensus rating a unanimous Strong Buy. Not to mention the $123.56 average price target puts the upside potential just below Murphy’s forecast at 37%.
https://blog.tipranks.com/exact-sciences-exas-stock-has-40-upside-from-here-says-analyst/
Recent EXAS News
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/08/2024 09:10:47 PM
- Form 424B7 - Prospectus [Rule 424(b)(7)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/08/2024 09:08:47 PM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/08/2024 09:03:20 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/08/2024 08:08:13 PM
- Exact Sciences Announces First-Quarter 2024 Results • Business Wire • 05/08/2024 08:05:00 PM
- U.S. Futures Slightly Dip Amid Corporate Earnings and Quiet Economic Calendar, Oil Prices Fall • IH Market News • 05/08/2024 12:29:17 PM
- Exact Sciences Demonstrates Continued Scientific Advancement in Colorectal Cancer Screening with Multiple Data Presentations at DDW® 2024 • Business Wire • 05/07/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Exact Sciences to Participate in May Investor Conference • Business Wire • 05/01/2024 10:00:00 AM
- Exact Sciences Names Aaron Bloomer as New Chief Financial Officer • Business Wire • 04/15/2024 10:00:00 AM
- Exact Sciences Announces Debt Exchange Transaction and Private Placement of Convertible Senior Notes • Business Wire • 04/11/2024 10:00:00 AM
- Exact Sciences to Present Late-Breaking Data from ASCEND-2 Study Validating Its Investigational Multi-Cancer Early Detection Test at AACR Annual Meeting 2024 • Business Wire • 04/08/2024 04:05:00 PM
- Exact Sciences Schedules First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call • Business Wire • 04/08/2024 10:00:00 AM
- Exact Sciences to Provide Mayo Clinic Patients with Individualized Cancer Tumor Information to Inform Treatment • Business Wire • 04/04/2024 10:05:00 AM
- Exact Sciences Advances Development of Non-Endoscopic Oncoguard® Esophagus Test to Screen for Esophageal Cancer and Pre-Cancer • Business Wire • 03/28/2024 10:00:00 AM
- Exact Sciences Named 2024 Gallup Exceptional Workplace Award Winner • Business Wire • 03/27/2024 12:05:00 PM
- The New England Journal of Medicine Publishes Cologuard Plus™ Test Results from Pivotal BLUE-C Study • Business Wire • 03/13/2024 09:03:00 PM
- Exact Sciences and Basketball Great Jamal Mashburn Encourage Americans 45+ to Have a Game Plan Against Colon Cancer • Business Wire • 03/07/2024 12:59:00 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/05/2024 01:42:55 AM
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