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Re: Fred Kadiddlehopper post# 5785

Monday, 01/13/2020 10:12:30 PM

Monday, January 13, 2020 10:12:30 PM

Post# of 8547
"Darzalex represents a solid base with continued strong growth potential: Darzalex is Genmab's leading treatment for multiple myeloma (MM) on which it receives tiered global royalties of 12-20% from its partner Johnson & Johnson. The agent has demonstrated compelling data across a line of multiple myeloma and now represents a key treatment for patients. We see peak sales growing from ~$3B in 2019E to ~$9B by 2025E, generally inline with consensus. Importantly, there are three key factors which could cause Darzalex to outperform over the medium term: (1) transition from IV to subcutaneous formulations which will allow management to target community oncology centers, the largest segment of the market, which remains underpenetrated. We expect approval of the subcutaneous formulation in 2020; "

This suggests JNJ has a strong incentive to push for the transition to SC Darzalex.

Also, I thought peak sales estimates were around $7B by 2027. I like $9B by 2025 a lot better and this makes me think a $50 buyout price is possible.
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