Ballard and Blloom on a hydrogen rocket
Ballard's stock price keeps bounding, up another 12% today to $13.25. A year ago it was 4.20. On November 5 it was 7.55. Bloom Energy bottomed at $2.50 in October and is at $9.40 today. Are these stocks in line for a takeout? Hydrogenics was taken out last summer by Cummins.
Hydrogen is the new flavor favorite amongst renewable energy speculators. I missed the bubble and continue to be skeptical but maybe I'm biased by a decade of watching Ballard flounder and fall after billions of written off investment by Daimler, Toyota and Ford. Ballard is chronically short of development capital - this stock bubble at least gives them the opportunity to refinance without too much dilution or giving away the shop to their Chinese partners as they have been forced to do in the last few years.
Here a recent blurb from Ballard's pres. and Deloitte China on the wonderful future in store:
Ballard Power Systems Inc. and Deloitte China have released a joint white paper entitled "Fueling the Future of Mobility: Hydrogen and fuel cell solutions for transportation" at the Consumer Technology Association's CES 2020 trade show being held in Las Vegas, Nev. This white paper is the first volume in a series exploring how hydrogen is set to power the future of mobility.
Randy MacEwen, Ballard president and chief executive officer, said, "In less than 10 years, it will become cheaper to run a fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) than it is to run a battery-electric vehicle (BEV) or an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle for certain commercial applications."
Although FCEVs are currently more expensive to run per 100 kilometres than BEVs and ICE commercial vehicles, they are set to become much cheaper as manufacturing technology matures, economies of scale improve, hydrogen fuel costs decline and infrastructure develops. Indeed, the white paper conservatively estimates the total cost of ownership (TCO) for commercial hydrogen vehicles will fall by more than 50 per cent in the next 10 years.
"We are excited to partner with Deloitte on this important initiative," added Mr. MacEwen. "We believe this white paper provides answers to the most pertinent questions from industry executives and laypeople alike, specifically regarding the economic viability of FCEVs and their environmental sustainability."
Adrian Xu, Deloitte China financial advisory director, said: "To many commercial operators, hydrogen seems to be a complex and expensive technology for the future. However, we have proven through our deep research and proprietary model that FCEVs will become cheaper to run than traditional ICE vehicles or BEVs very soon. Sophisticated commercial operators around the world are already investing in this technology to stay one step ahead of the competition."
Alan MacCharles, Deloitte China financial advisory partner, noted: "In China, where the TCO of BEVs is already close to that of ICE commercial vehicles, the total cost of owning an FCEV is expected to be lower than that for ICE commercial vehicles by 2027, and we estimate that the TCO of FCEVs will fall below that of BEVs a year later. The cost of running commercial FCEVs will decline as fuel cell system and hydrogen costs decrease by about 70 per cent and 63 per cent, respectively."
Courtesey rightjake
