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NY Crude Oil Futures - Pushing Higher »» Monthly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 28, 2019

THE ANALYSIS PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. Dec. 27, 2019: NY Crude Oil Futures closed above our indicating ranges on the Daily level. It closed today at 6172 and is trading up about 35% for the year from last year's closing of 4541. This price action here in December is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 6197 intraday and is still trading above that high of 5874.


Presently, the market remains unchanged within support still above our system indicators while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish.

The historical major high took place back in 2008 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 10 years. The correction since that high has been a 17% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 10102 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2016 and we have bounced some 136% which has been a very strong rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 8171 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 4051 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.

A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during September. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now, so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a high at 5874 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 6338 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 6288 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 6338 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during September. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 6660 back during April. Critical support still underlies this market at 5122 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. This market is neutral for now on all our monthly indicators. We can see this market has been down for the past month. The previous high made during September on the Monthly level at 6338 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. The previous low of 4236 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 5099 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain above key support 5060 on a closing basis.

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