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Saturday, December 28, 2019 9:09:26 AM
DP (SPY) ALERT WEEKLY WRAP: Monthly Chart Review; New Gold BUY Signal
By: Carl Swenlin | December 27, 2019
* (Click Read Full Story »»» at the bottom of the page for the charts to appear on the post)
On Thursday the gold 20EMA crossed up through the 50EMA, generating an IT Trend Model BUY signal. Notice also, that we had other indications alerting us that gold's price action was about to turn positive. There was a double bottom, followed immediately by the PMO crossing up through the signal line. And before that, there were two green spikes showing closed-end fund PHYS was briefly trading at a premium, which means that sentiment on those days had turned positive. We'll take a deeper dive into gold's prospects below.
GLOBAL MARKETS
BROAD MARKET INDEXES
SECTORS
Each S&P 500 Index component stock is assigned to one, and only one, of 11 major sectors. This is a snapshot of the Intermediate-Term (Silver Cross) and Long-Term (Golden Cross) Trend Model signal status for those sectors.
INTEREST RATES
This chart is included so we can monitor rate inversions. In normal circumstances the longer money is borrowed the higher the interest rate that must be paid. When rates are inverted, the reverse is true.
STOCKS
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 9/6/2019
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 2/26/2019
SPY Daily Chart: SPY is reaching the top of a rising trend channel, which could interfere with the rally next week. Volume was unusually low due to holiday trading. We'll probably see the same next week.
SPY Weekly Chart: The weekly PMO has reached the most overbought level since early-2018.
SPY Monthly Chart: There are still two trading days left in December, and the monthly charts won't be final until then, but I think now is a good time to review that time frame. For SPY the monthly PMO is overbought, but it has been overbought for about eight years. The PMO and price are rising, so this chart is bullish.
Climactic Market Indicators: There were no climax readings this week.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The STO-B and Percent PMOs Rising are falling in the short-term, diverging negatively from price.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: Surprisingly, the Golden Cross Index is higher than the Silver Cross Index. In any case, they both confirm the rising price trend.
All these indicators are in overbought territory.
CONCLUSION: The trend of the market is up, and the condition is overbought. Last week, for various tantalizing reasons, I thought we might get a down move this week. Didn't happen. The more tantalizing of last weeks reasons for being bearish are no longer present, so next week I'll be looking for continued light trading with prices edging higher until January 6. The current advance is still parabolic. Should it persist, I think it will break down sometime next month.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries
By: Carl Swenlin | December 27, 2019
* (Click Read Full Story »»» at the bottom of the page for the charts to appear on the post)
On Thursday the gold 20EMA crossed up through the 50EMA, generating an IT Trend Model BUY signal. Notice also, that we had other indications alerting us that gold's price action was about to turn positive. There was a double bottom, followed immediately by the PMO crossing up through the signal line. And before that, there were two green spikes showing closed-end fund PHYS was briefly trading at a premium, which means that sentiment on those days had turned positive. We'll take a deeper dive into gold's prospects below.
GLOBAL MARKETS
BROAD MARKET INDEXES
SECTORS
Each S&P 500 Index component stock is assigned to one, and only one, of 11 major sectors. This is a snapshot of the Intermediate-Term (Silver Cross) and Long-Term (Golden Cross) Trend Model signal status for those sectors.
INTEREST RATES
This chart is included so we can monitor rate inversions. In normal circumstances the longer money is borrowed the higher the interest rate that must be paid. When rates are inverted, the reverse is true.
STOCKS
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 9/6/2019
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 2/26/2019
SPY Daily Chart: SPY is reaching the top of a rising trend channel, which could interfere with the rally next week. Volume was unusually low due to holiday trading. We'll probably see the same next week.
SPY Weekly Chart: The weekly PMO has reached the most overbought level since early-2018.
SPY Monthly Chart: There are still two trading days left in December, and the monthly charts won't be final until then, but I think now is a good time to review that time frame. For SPY the monthly PMO is overbought, but it has been overbought for about eight years. The PMO and price are rising, so this chart is bullish.
Climactic Market Indicators: There were no climax readings this week.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The STO-B and Percent PMOs Rising are falling in the short-term, diverging negatively from price.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: Surprisingly, the Golden Cross Index is higher than the Silver Cross Index. In any case, they both confirm the rising price trend.
All these indicators are in overbought territory.
CONCLUSION: The trend of the market is up, and the condition is overbought. Last week, for various tantalizing reasons, I thought we might get a down move this week. Didn't happen. The more tantalizing of last weeks reasons for being bearish are no longer present, so next week I'll be looking for continued light trading with prices edging higher until January 6. The current advance is still parabolic. Should it persist, I think it will break down sometime next month.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Your Due Dilegence is a must!
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