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Bonds, Stocks, & Silver Surge Over Xmas Week But Dollar Dives To 5-Month Lows
“They’re keeping the rates down so that everything else doesn’t go down… The only thing that is strong is the artificial stock market.” – Trump, 9/5/16
It’s been a year of buying everything:
S&P’s best year since 1997 Gold’s best year since 2010 Bond’s best year since 2014 And all it took was $5 trillion in global liquidity!!!
Remember, correlation is not causation… especially when your salary depends on it…because this rally in stocks is all about the fun-durr-mentals…The S&P 500 is up almost 30% and earnings expectations are down almost 5% on the year…
Chinese stocks were unchanged on the week…
US majors started weak today, rebounded, then ended weak… Nasdaq ended its winning streak…
US Small Caps lagged on the week as Nasdaq soared (the S&P is on the verge of its best year since 1997)…
Nasdaq bounced perfectly off 9,000 intraday…
The Dow bounced off unchanged twice…
AAPL had a more volatile day than normal… was the guy in charge of buybacks taking some time off?
Still doesn’t really matter eh?
VIX has notably decoupled from stocks this week…
Treasury yields ended the week 3-5bps lower
10Y yields broke back below 1.90%…
The Dollar plunged today (biggest single-day drop since Sept 4th)…
This is the 3rd weekly drop in the last 4 weeks, to its weakest close since July…
As the dollar has slipped, Yuan has drifted very quietly sideways, apparently pegged around 7.00…
Bitcoin was unchanged on the week with Bitcoin Cash surging today to lead on the week; Ripple and Ethereum lagged…
Commodities were all higher as the dollar tumbled, but PMs trumped crude and copper…
Silver topped $18 on the week (though fell back below today)…
And gold topped $1500 and held it…
And WTI Crude has accelerated beyond its uptrend channel…
Copper has now risen for 6 straight weeks – the longest streak since Sept 2017…
Finally, investor greed has reached peak-extreme…
And hedge fund exposure to the US equity market is exploding…
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