Got this from a poster on another board....This is a break down of expected revenue from the recent approval based on the past couple of financials. I know we are splitting hairs here and they are just rough estimations....the numbers work for me but they are open for debate.
Elite started their immediate release adderall distribution two quarters ago. That market is approx. $365 million and, including Elite, has 12 producers. 3 quarters ago Elite had $1.3 million in sales. Last quarter Elite reported $4.6 million in sales, an additional $3.3 million mostly manufacturing revenue from the IR Adderall (Dantrolene was included but the market is tiny so let's not split hairs). In addition to manufacturing revenue, Elite gets what they categorize as licensing revenue which is the money they receive when Lannett sells to their customers.To use last year's quarter as a guide, Elite did $800,000 in manufacturing revenue and $550,000 in licensing revenue, so out of the $1.3 million revenue, 42% of it was licensing revenue. Last quarter, since there is a lag, measured in months, before licensing revenue hits the books, Elite did $4.2 million in manufacturing revenue and $465,000 in licensing revenue. Just looking at this ratio tells anyone that the lion's share of the new revenue is adderall. Apply the 42% to what we can expect in annual licensing revenue from IR adderall, you get $5.5 million
( $13.3 million annualized IR adderall X .42 ) putting Elite's share of the IR Adderall action at $18.8 million. Out of the $365 million market for the drug, Elite's piece of the IR market is 5.1%. Plug in these numbers to a $1.5 billion ER Adderall market and you get $75 million for Elite in mfg and licensing annual revenue. These are round number comps but if you have your own numbers to back up your opinion I'd like to see them. I'm always interested to hear other opinions or learn something new.
On top of this revenue.... Throw in $600,000 for the sale of Percocet and Norco and $750,000 milestone payment from Lannett for Adderall ER.
Again, at the shareholders meeting Nasrat stated Elite was ready to launch Adderall ER as soon as middle of January and no later than February.
Given the few months lag in manufacturing fees. The end of the year numbers reported in June should be off the hook and the “ Going Concern” removed. We are only six months away now.
