I'll take either door 2 or 3 on your list!
Here is the thing that occurs to me. Its November, and you are talking to your Noteholders - the people you owe money to - and you are talking about extending your time to pay them. Is 30 days really an answer to any debtor's problem - has it ever been? Not really. So, if you KNEW you needed more time, you would just ask for the March date (4 months later) at the outset.
What they are doing here though is saying - give me 30 days to get a term sheet for either licensing the rights to our drug program or flat out letting the company get purchased in a merger. (Who in the hell does that on a 30 day limit unless THEY KNOW they have something cooking with a company waiting in the wings to complete a deal? Nobody in my opinion.)
Also, the fact that it is contingent on merely getting a "term sheet" is revealing in my opinion, because all that means is they put the loose terms together with the specifics to follow in the formal DEAL documents. Which you can definitely do within 90 days once you agree on the loose terms.
As far as door 2 or door 3 of your options - if they are getting a fair price for the enterprise value of the licensing or the enterprise value of the company, I'm good with either.
Also, as a side note - it occurs to me that one of their biggest creditors, interest-holders, stakeholders or whatever else you want to call him is the former CEO that took them through the reverse merger at the beginning - Andrew L. Salzman, MD. (ie Salzman Group, etc.) Before he was involved with this company, he was involved with a company called Inotek Pharmaceuticals for which HE WENT WITH DOOR #2 - licensed that company's Glaucoma drug for $600M. So, if the same thing could happen here - for the same price, at $600M you be looking at roughly $1.20 per share by my math, and IMO.
Not holding my breath on any of this. As a shareholder, I'd rather see them take the drug through FDA approval and onto the market, which would probably yield much more on the investment. But, if they sell out I'm not complaining.
(End of Rant)
