Monday, December 02, 2019 12:51:15 PM
First, I would strongly echo your sentiment regarding revenue granularity. We need considerably more information in that regard from this point forward. They are building a business that is relatively complex given the wide product mix and jurisdictional variability and dispersion and it's no longer appropriate to just give aggregate revenues: Both existing investors with any marginal amount of sophistication and new (ideally) institutional ones simply must have it to understand what's going on. Previously I've been willing to give them a pass based on the formative nature of the company with the reorg, but that time has passed. I'm sure Chris Cutchens anticipates this expectation from investors and certainly any analyst that might pick up the stock in early 2020.
I missed your previous 2020 projection—well done. My perspective on margins is that margins have interplay with my first point. If we get no granularity on revenues (with which we can see delta over time) it's going to be very difficult for markets to price in any credit for improving margins toward their stated targets (and the concern here is that they could be lower than guidance). I recognize that early channel acquisition costs are going to give rise to increased revenue and cross-selling over time. In my view, what makes markets nervous is a lack of transparency on these things. Until we see the full picture my guess is that markets will not price in much in terms forward revenue growth, primarily because without the transparency there is simply more risk. It is time to normalize reporting to institutional standards.
Side note: While I'm glad that they released the deck on Friday, it was not "as promised." It was promised before Thanksgiving. Those details matter and whether management recognizes it or not, those perceptions ultimately get reflected in the stock price. It's really pretty simple: say what you're going to do and when you're going to do it. Then deliver.
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