Zeev's Turnips Talk Politics (ZTTP)

[DewDiligence]

The Democratic Dictator from Venezuela

[Why bother with future elections?]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116516723908039358.html

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Chávez Landslide May Speed Changes

By JOSÉ DE CÓRDOBA
December 4, 2006

CARACAS, Venezuela -- President Hugo Chávez won a landslide election to a new six-year term, sparking fears among foes that he will accelerate his quest to install what he calls "21st-century socialism" in the world's fifth-largest oil exporter.

…His victory stoked concern among his opponents that Mr. Chávez, an admirer of Cuban leader Fidel Castro, would press the accelerator on what his opponents fear is his attempt to remake Venezuela along the lines of communist Cuba.

"Long live the socialist revolution," cried Mr. Chávez after singing the Venezuelan national anthem from a window in the presidential palace as a crowd below shouted "Uh, Ah, Hugo no se va," or "Uh, Ah, Hugo's not leaving."

…Encouraged by his victory, Mr. Chávez will no doubt redouble efforts to create an anti-American and anti-free-trade bloc in the hemisphere, while lending diplomatic support to other anti-U.S. countries such as Iran. Last week, Rafael Correa, a Chavez ally, won Ecuador's presidential election. But most analysts believe that Mr. Chávez's populist "Bolivarian" revolution, which relies on his free spending of billions in oil income, isn't easily exportable.

…Opponents fear Mr. Chávez's landslide could consolidate his power for years. Already Mr. Chávez, who has repeatedly said he will stay in power until 2021, controls all 167 seats in Venezuela's National Assembly, as well as Venezuela's judicial branch. With the political wind at their backs, Mr. Chávez, 52, and his congressional allies are expected to push through a constitutional overhaul abolishing term limits, permitting the fiery populist to run repeatedly for re-election. [Why have elections at all then?]

Mr. Chávez may also move to increase state control over private education, and further extend control over Venezuela's highly centralized economy by promoting noncapitalist forms of production and exchange such as cooperatives.

…Mr. Chávez has also said he favors forging a single government party from the handful of parties that now support him. Analysts believe Mr. Chávez would also increase the already prominent role of Venezuela's armed forces in the government.

The landslide was a not-unexpected triumph for Mr. Chávez, who has dominated and convulsed Venezuelan politics for more than a decade. He first erupted on the scene as one of the ringleaders of a failed coup in 1992. He served two years in prison but was released as part of an amnesty in 1994.

Four years later, capitalizing on a general sense of disgust with Venezuela's political parties, widely seen as corrupt, Mr. Chávez won the presidency with 56% of the vote. He then redrew Venezuela's constitution, giving him much wider powers. In 2000 he again was elected president. But his fiery rhetoric directed against Venezuela's middle and upper classes, which he labeled "oligarchs," his confrontational stance with the U.S., and his closeness with Mr. Castro violently split the country.

…Another likely restraint on Mr. Chávez' radical ambitions is the widespread corruption that has flourished under his government. A newly rich class of government officials, military officers and businessmen with close links to the government, known as Boliburgeses, or Bolivarian bourgeoisie, has sprung up in the last few years. These wealthy and powerful barons now have foreign bank accounts, apartments in Miami and private jets they are loath to lose. "The powers in the Chavista movement-the military, mayors, government ministers, and top managers of state companies -- are all capitalists," says Juan Carlos Zapata, a political analyst here. "They are nervous about where the system is going and where Chávez is going."
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