Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

AXSM—…mechanistically odds are high…to succeed barring any safety issue.

This is where I would respectfully disagree. Showing statsig superiority of AXR-07 to placebo and to each constituent drug on each primary and secondary endpoint is going to require some lucky breaks, regardless of the MoA. It’s a mathematical parlay in which each leg is very likely, but the parlay as a whole is not.

Let’s consider a crude sports analogy.* At the start of an NFL season, say there’s a team that has a 90% chance of winning each game during the regular season. What is the probability that this team goes undefeated for the entire (regular) season?

p.s. AXSM claims that the two constituent drugs have synergistic pharmacokinetics, and I’m not disputing that.

*The analogy is crude insofar as the individual games of the football team are more independent of one another than the individual endpoints in AXSM’s clinical trial.