Green Thumb Industries Inc (GTBIF)

[FUNMAN]

Green Thumb Vs Trulieve:

This is pretty simplistic but the more I have been thinking about the differences between Trulieve and Green Thumb, the more I believe I've uncovered Trulieve's achilles heel.

I just thoroughly read both companies ER's.

Trulieve went with a great strategy to become profitable by operating in only 1 state. They have very high margins. But they are 9 stores away from maxing out expansion in FLA.

They know they have to grow one state at a time using the same model if they want to remain profitable.

To expand into more states, Trulieve has to go to the expense of building out the seed to sale infrastructure that Green Thumb has already built out, or is almost finished building out in 11 states.

It explains the Green Thumb equity raises and the differences in the two companies O/S.

They both have about the same amount of cash on hand today.

Trulieve needs a lot more money to penetrate new states, then Green Thumb needs to keep opening stores and finishing their production expansion which is well underway in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Illinois.

Green Thumb has the advantage of being a "first mover" in all of their states. With their grow facilities in place, every new store in every state increases scale which will increase margins in those states.

It's not going to surprise me one bit if they are GAAP black profitable next Q.

Thinking 12 months out, Trulieve has a lot of catching up to do to keep up with Green Thumb.


Regarding entry points, Trulieve won't have much tax loss selling.

https://old.nasdaq.com/symbol/tcnnf/stock-chart?&intraday=off&timeframe=1y&splits=off&movingaverage=None&lowerstudy=volume&comparison=off

Green Thumb can definitely have tax loss selling:

https://old.nasdaq.com/symbol/gtbif/stock-chart?intraday=off&timeframe=1y&splits=off&earnings=off&movingaverage=None&lowerstudy=volume&comparison=off&index=&drilldown=off


I am going to move new money into Green Thumb.

For sure, I may be over-thinking this, but I think it makes sense.

Thoughts?