In light of the expensive term loan, they need sales to grow fast now that some of the cost synergies are being delayed. We don't know if they're being delayed 1 year or 3 or 5. Delaying $8 million in cost synergies is significant for this small company with slim margins. I think for many investors, management's credibility just took a hit. Lots of hedge funds probably have talked to management and have been impressed with the optimistic targets, only to be hit in the face with that earnings call last week. This is a very popular hedge fund hotel.
I think buying here today has a 4x or more upside opportunity if management can hit their growth targets and capture remaining synergies in the future. But look out below if we have a downturn in housing before the term loan matures.
Leverage + cyclicality + merger integration with lofty targets = high risk/high reward. It's been a good stock to buy when optimism is nowhere to be found, but admittedly I'm a bit less optimistic this time around. Everyone has their own risk appetite.
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